Is the melting Arctic changing midlatitude weather?

Overland, James E.

doi:10.1063/pt.3.3107

Cited by 12 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The four‐step mechanism introduced in this work provides us with a unified view of how a signal propagates from the B‐K seas to Europe. Each step of this mechanism had been already discussed separately in the published literature, and there is not a general agreement on the active role of sea ice, in particular, for the impact on midlatitude weather [e.g., Gao et al , ; Overland , ; Vihma , ]. Our work links them together in a unified mechanism and, although it suffers from large uncertainties (e.g., the shortness of the record and decadal variability embedded in the composite analysis), it establishes a reasonable hypothesis to be tested in further studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 55%

On the link between Barents‐Kara sea ice variability and European blocking

2016

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This study examines the connection between the variability of sea ice concentration in the Barents and Kara (B-K) seas and winter European weather on an intraseasonal time scale. Low sea ice regimes in autumn and early winter over the B-K seas are shown to affect the strength and position of the polar vortex, and increase the frequency of blocking regimes over the Euro-Atlantic sector in late winter. A hypothesis is presented on the mechanism that links sea ice over the B-K seas and circulation regimes in the North Atlantic, and is investigated considering 34 years of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data. Four key steps have been identified, starting from a local response of the near-surface fluxes and modification of the upper tropospheric wave pattern, to the stratospheric adjustment and the tropospheric response in the North Atlantic. The proposed mechanism explains the delayed, late winter response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the late autumn sea ice reduction, which has been found both in observations and model experiments. It also provides valuable insights on how the reduction of Arctic sea ice can influence the position of the tropospheric jet in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 55%

On the link between Barents‐Kara sea ice variability and European blocking

2016

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“…Both observational and modeling studies have suggested that Arctic sea ice changes could impact mid-latitude weather events (e.g., Francis et al, 2009;Francis and Vavrus, 2012;Mori et al, 2014;Nakamura et al, 2016;McCusker et al, 2017;Luo et al, 2019;Cohen et al, 2021;Sun et al, 2022) and even the Indian Ocean Dipole (Chen et al, 2021). Other studies have questioned how great the influence might be (e.g., Overland, 2016;Blackport et al, 2019;Blackport and Screen, 2021); but given the interconnectedness of the system, some influence is almost assured despite the fact that scientists have not yet sorted out exactly what and how great the influence is.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic sea ice coverage from 43 years of satellite passive-microwave observations

Parkinson

2022

Front. Remote Sens.

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Satellite passive-microwave instrumentation has allowed the monitoring of Arctic sea ice over the past 43 years, and this monitoring has revealed and quantified major changes occurring in Arctic sea ice coverage. The 43-year 1979–2021 record shows considerable interannual variability but also a long-term downward trend in Arctic sea ice that is clear from many vantage points: A linear-least-square trend of −54,300 ± 2,700 km2/year for yearly average sea ice extents; statistically significant negative trends for each of the 12 calendar months; negative trends for each of nine regions into which the Arctic sea ice cover is divided; the fact that for all 12 calendar months the highest monthly average sea ice extent came in the first 8 years of the record and the lowest monthly average sea ice extent came in the last 10 years of the record; and a prominent shortening of the sea ice season throughout much of the marginal ice zone, with the length of the sea ice season in some locations decreasing by over 100 days and some locations previously experiencing months-long sea ice seasons now typically no longer having a sea ice season at all. The overall, Arctic-wide trend value of the yearly average sea ice extents since 1979 has consistently had a negative magnitude exceeding two standard deviations of the trend line slope since 1990 and has remained in the narrow range of −53,000 km2/yr to −55,500 km2/yr since 2011.

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“…[1], is a well studied phenomenon that in some settings seems to exclude the possibility of signalling [2] and can be implemented even for many particle systems [3]. There are, however, also physical phenomena that are of a nonlocal nature that are describable with nonlinear wave equations, such as nonlocal rogue waves [4,5], weather forecast models in which nonlocality is caused by feedback loops [6,7], gravitational waves [8], etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlocal gauge equivalence: Hirota versus extended continuous Heisenberg and Landau–Lifschitz equation

Cen¹,

Correa²,

Fring³

2020

J. Phys. A: Math. Theor.

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We exploit the gauge equivalence between the Hirota equation and the extended continuous Heisenberg equation to investigate how nonlocality properties of one system are inherited by the other. We provide closed generic expressions for nonlocal multi-soliton solutions for both systems. By demonstrating that a specific auto-gauge transformation for the extended continuous Heisenberg equation becomes equivalent to a Darboux transformation, we use the latter to construct the nonlocal multi-soliton solutions from which the corresponding nonlocal solutions to the Hirota equation can be computed directly. We discuss properties and solutions of a nonlocal version of the nonlocal extended Landau-Lifschitz equation obtained from the nonlocal extended continuous Heisenberg equation or directly from the nonlocal solutions of the Hirota equation.

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Is the melting Arctic changing midlatitude weather?

Abstract: According to model simulations, a warming Arctic can shift the circulation patterns of the polar jet stream and bring frigid air southward. But has it?

Cited by 12 publications

References 17 publications

On the link between Barents‐Kara sea ice variability and European blocking

On the link between Barents‐Kara sea ice variability and European blocking

Arctic sea ice coverage from 43 years of satellite passive-microwave observations

Nonlocal gauge equivalence: Hirota versus extended continuous Heisenberg and Landau–Lifschitz equation

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