Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Huang, Yanyan; Wang, Huijun

doi:10.1029/2019ea000986

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The CN05.1 precipitation data set is on a 0.25° × 0.25° grid and during the period of 1961–2016 (Wu & Gao, 2013). The data set is constructed using precipitation data from 2,416 rain gauges over China and has been widely used in regional precipitation investigations (e.g., Huang & Wang, 2020; Li & Sun, 2020; Zhou et al, 2016). The spring NEC precipitation index (NECPI) is defined as the spring precipitation anomalies averaged over the region north of 40°N and east of 115°E in China.…”

Section: Data Methods and Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Role of Late Winter Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over Northern Tropical Atlantic in Spring Precipitation Prediction Over Northeast China

Zhang

Sun

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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The present study investigates the relationship between the winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and spring Northeast China (NEC) precipitation during 1961-2016 from a seasonal prediction aspect. The results show that the February SST variability over the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) has an enhanced relationship with the spring NEC precipitation after the late 1970s, consequently providing a prediction source for the spring NEC precipitation during the period. Such an interdecadal change in the relationship between February NTA SST and spring NEC precipitation is associated with the interdecadal change in the tropical SST around the late 1970s. The NTA SST exhibits good persistence from late winter to spring. Under the warmer SST background after the late 1970s, the NTA SST is related to more active tropical convection and diabatic heating anomalies in spring, consequently leading to an enhanced connection between the NTA SST and atmospheric circulations over the middle-to-high latitude North Atlantic during the period. Anomalous atmospheric circulations over the North Atlantic can further excite Rossby wave train that propagates eastward to East Asia, consequently influencing the moisture and dynamic conditions over NEC. Through the aforementioned physical processes, the NTA SST variability can lead to anomalous precipitation over NEC. The physical processes linking the NTA SST anomalies and spring NEC precipitation are further confirmed by an atmospheric general circulation model experiment forced with idealized NTA warming. The 1-month lead information of the NTA SST provides a prediction source for spring precipitation over NEC, which has potential usage in operational forecasting.

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Section: Data Methods and Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Role of Late Winter Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over Northern Tropical Atlantic in Spring Precipitation Prediction Over Northeast China

Zhang

Sun

2020

JGR Atmospheres

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“…It is fortunate that the effect of flood-stage amplification has not yet created a major flood on the LYR. For the past two decades, the Yellow River catchment has been unusually dry 68 and the Xiaolangdi Reservoir has worked to effectively damp floods. However, climate models predict that precipitation in the Yellow River catchment will increase by 10 to 30% in the coming century 69 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification of downstream flood stage due to damming of fine-grained rivers

Nittrouer

et al. 2022

Nat Commun

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River dams provide many benefits, including flood control. However, due to constantly evolving channel morphology, downstream conveyance of floodwaters following dam closure is difficult to predict. Here, we test the hypothesis that the incised, enlarged channel downstream of dams provides enhanced water conveyance, using a case study from the lower Yellow River, China. We find that, although flood stage is lowered for small floods, counterintuitively, flood stage downstream of a dam can be amplified for moderate and large floods. This arises because bed incision is accompanied by sediment coarsening, which facilitates development of large dunes that increase flow resistance and reduce velocity relative to pre-dam conditions. Our findings indicate the underlying mechanism for such flood amplification may occur in >80% of fine-grained rivers, and suggest the need to reconsider flood control strategies in such rivers worldwide.

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“…North China is a semi-humid region with a temperate continental monsoon climate. Precipitation is unevenly distributed during the year and primarily occurs in summer [42]. Its northern and western regions are mountainous, and the vegetation types are mainly woodland and grassland; the central and eastern regions are extensive plains and represent the main crop production areas in China [43,44].…”

Section: North Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of Instantaneous Air Temperature under All-Weather Conditions Based on MODIS Products in North and Southwest China

2023

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Air temperature (Ta) is a common meteorological element involved in many fields, such as surface energy exchange and water circulation. Consequently, accurate Ta estimation is essential for the establishment of hydrological, climate, and environmental models. Unlike most studies concerned with the estimation of daily Ta from land surface temperature, this study focused on the estimation of instantaneous Ta from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric profile products aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The applicability of various estimation methods was examined in two regions with different geomorphological and climate conditions, North and Southwest China. Specifically, the spatiotemporal trend of Ta under clear sky conditions can be reflected by the atmospheric profile extrapolation and average methods. However, the accuracy of Ta estimation was poor, with root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3.5 to 5.2 °C for North China and from 4.0 to 7.7 °C for Southwest China. The multiple linear regression model significantly improved the accuracy of Ta estimation by introducing auxiliary data, resulting in RMSE of 1.6 and 1.5 °C in North China and RMSE of 2.2 and 2.3 °C in Southwest China for the Terra and Aqua datasets, respectively. Since atmospheric profile products only provide information under clear sky conditions, a new multiple linear regression model was established to estimate the instantaneous Ta under cloudy sky conditions independently from atmospheric profile products, resulting in RMSE of 1.9 and 1.9 °C in North China and RMSE of 2.5 and 2.8 °C in Southwest China, for the Terra and Aqua datasets, respectively. Finally, instantaneous Ta products with high accuracy were generated for all-weather conditions in the study regions to analyze their Ta spatial patterns. The accuracy of Ta estimation varies depending on MODIS datasets, regions, elevation, and land cover types.

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Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Cited by 7 publications

References 51 publications

Increased Role of Late Winter Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over Northern Tropical Atlantic in Spring Precipitation Prediction Over Northeast China

Increased Role of Late Winter Sea Surface Temperature Variability Over Northern Tropical Atlantic in Spring Precipitation Prediction Over Northeast China

Amplification of downstream flood stage due to damming of fine-grained rivers

Estimation of Instantaneous Air Temperature under All-Weather Conditions Based on MODIS Products in North and Southwest China

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