Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?

Kırca, Mustafa; Canbay, Şerif; Pirali, Kerem

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101838

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(81 reference statements)

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“…To carry out the Toda-Yamamoto test with a structural break, we formed the following Equation (1) which is based on Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) developed by Sims (1980) and the Toda & Yamamoto's (1995) causality test. Since there is a strong deterministic trend especially in lhinf, we added a deterministic trend as well as dummy variables representing the structural breaks in variables to the classical Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality test equation, as was done in Kırca et al (2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

Özer¹,

İnal²,

Kırca³

2022

ekoist

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This paper examines whether the causal relationship between the health care price index and the real exchange rate index is temporary or permanent. To do this, we first apply the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break and then continue with frequency domain causality tests based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break indicates that there is causality running from the real exchange rate index to the health care price index. Moreover, the frequency domain causality test results based on the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break provide evidence that the real effective exchange rate causes temporarily (in the short-and medium term) to the health care price index. The effect of the real exchange rate index on the health care price index lasts between 2 months and 8.37 months. These findings imply that there is a significant exchange rate pass-through in health care inflation in the short-and medium term. Thus, the health authorities should take into account these findings when planning health care policies in Turkey, especially health care services heavily dependent on imported materials.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

Özer¹,

İnal²,

Kırca³

2022

ekoist

Self Cite

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“…Recently, Kırca et al (2020) conducted a study in Turkey to explore whether a fall in oil price affects the economic growth of the country and found that due to dependence on exported energy products, any change in the price of oil affects the economy significantly [17]. They suggest that the recent fall in oil price due to COVID-19 affected the Turkish economy positively.…”

Section: Impact Of Oil Prices On Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the Vision 2030 and Value Added Tax Leads to Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia?

et al. 2021

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The motivation behind the current research is to check the effect of the recent introduction of value added tax (VAT) and Vision 2030 on the economy of Saudi Arabia. To check this, those variables are added to the analysis which contribute to economic development including labor, capital, oil price, financial development, and trade openness to examine that how economic transformation affects the role of these variables in economic growth. According to the vector error correction (VEC) model, the impact of labor becomes negative after VAT, however, the impact of capital and financial development becomes significant by this transformation. The coefficients of oil prices, for positive and negative shocks, are significant and negative. Financial development and trade openness are reporting surprising results; positive shocks have shown negative coefficients. However, after Vision 2030, trade openness has a significant and positive coefficient. Policy implications include diversification of exports, reviving the private financing mechanism and restructuring the export/import policies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples of studies examining the relationships between crude oil prices and different macroeconomic factors are papers by Kırca et al [15], Aye and Odhiambo [16] or Zakaria et al [17]. Kırca et al [15] investigated the relationship between the oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey in the period 1998-2019. The results, based on Granger and the Frequency Domain Causality tests, demonstrated an insignificant causality relationship between the variables, whereas the Toda-Yamamoto causality test with a structural break exhibited a causal relation running from oil-gas to economic growth.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Interrelationships between Markets of Fuels in the Visegrad Group Countries from 2016 to 2020

Górska

Krawiec

2021

Energies

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A fuel market is an important sector of the economy and fuel prices influence the prices of numerous products and services. This paper focuses on the analysis of the interrelationships between markets of fuels in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. The research is based on weekly prices of Pb95 gasoline and diesel in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia observed from January 2016 through December 2020. After performing the preliminary statistical analysis, the long-term relationships between the prices of fuels are investigated through application of the cointegrated regression Durbin–Watson (CRDW) test. Next, Granger causality is tested to answer the question of whether changes in prices of fuels in separate V4 countries Granger-cause changes in prices of fuels in other V4 countries. The cointegration research uses logarithmic prices, whereas causality investigation is based on their first differences. The results reveal long-term relationships between the prices of Pb95 gasoline in the Czech Republic and prices in other V4 countries as well as Granger causality flowing from diesel price changes in Poland to diesel price changes in other V4 countries and bilateral causation between changes in the prices of Pb95 gasoline in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.

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Is the relationship between oil-gas prices index and economic growth in Turkey permanent?

Cited by 18 publications

References 64 publications

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

The Relationship Between the Health Services Price Index and The Real Effective Exchange Rate Index in Turkey: A Frequency Domain Causality Analysis

Does the Vision 2030 and Value Added Tax Leads to Sustainable Economic Growth: The Case of Saudi Arabia?

Analysis of Interrelationships between Markets of Fuels in the Visegrad Group Countries from 2016 to 2020

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