Is the Shape of the Age-Crime Curve Invariant by Sex? Evidence from a National Sample with Flexible Non-parametric Modeling

Liu, Siyu

doi:10.1007/s10940-014-9225-6

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The strength of the age‐graded effects is notably different for women, where we find that older women are not responsive to clearance in terms of reduced recidivism. The results of prior research have led to the suggestion that women experience different pathways into crime (Daly, ) and that the transition from adolescence into adulthood is associated with desistance for women but not for men, meaning that women desist earlier than men do, typically as a result of important life transition events (Graham and Bowling, ; Liu, ). It is possible that younger women are disproportionately affected by a clearance for work largely because the older women in our sample are simply not likely to be arrested, despite whether they receive a clearance to work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Look at the Employment and Recidivism Relationship Through the Lens of a Criminal Background Check*

2017

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Criminal background checks are increasingly being incorporated into hiring decisions by employers. Although originally uncompromising—almost anyone with a criminal record could be denied employment—court rulings and policy changes have forced criminal background checks to become more nuanced. One motivation for allowing more individuals with criminal records to work is to decrease recidivism and encourage desistance. In this article, we estimate the causal impact of receiving a clearance to work on subsequent arrests for individuals with criminal records who have been provisionally hired to work in certain nonlicensed health‐care jobs in New York State (N = 6,648). We employ an instrumental variable approach based on a substantive understanding of the state‐mandated criminal background check process. We examine age‐graded effects within this group of motivated individuals and differential effects by sex in the rapidly growing health‐care industry, which is typically dominated by women. Our estimated local average treatment effect indicates a 2.2‐percentage‐point decrease in the likelihood of a subsequent arrest in 1 year and a 4.2‐percentage‐point decrease over 3 years. We find meaningful variations by sex; men are 8.4 percentage points less likely to be arrested over the 3‐year period when cleared compared with a 2.4‐percentage‐point (and nonsignificant) effect for women. Older women in particular are driving the nonsignificant results for women.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New Look at the Employment and Recidivism Relationship Through the Lens of a Criminal Background Check*

2017

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“…B-splines are starting to be used in criminology. For example, [17] used B-spline smoothing to describe the general shape of the age-crime curve for males and females and compared the results with group-based trajectory modelling, without, however, incorporating spline fitting into the GBTM modeling. Our focus in this paper is to build on this work and incorporate the B-spline estimation into GBTM modelling.…”

Section: B-splines and Basis Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smoothing Group-Based Trajectory Models Through B-Splines

Francis

Elliott

Weldon

2016

J Dev Life Course Criminology

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Purpose This paper investigates the use of B-spline smoothers as an alternative to polynomials when estimating trajectory shape in group-based trajectory models. The use of polynomials in these models can cause undesirable curve shapes, such as uplifts at the end of the trajectory, which may not be present in the data. Moreover, polynomial curves are global, meaning that a data point at one end of the trajectory can affect the shape of the curve at the other end. Methods We use the UK Offenders Index 1963 birth cohort to investigate the use of B-splines. The models are fitted using Latent Gold, and two information criteria (BIC and ICL-BIC) are used to estimate the number of knots of the B-spline, as well as the number of groups. A small simulation study is also presented. Results A three-group solution was chosen. It is shown that B-splines can provide a better fit to the observed data than cubic polynomials. The offending trajectory groups correspond to the classic groups of adolescent-limited, low-rate chronic and high-rate chronic which were proposed by Moffitt. The shapes of the two chronic trajectory curves from the B-spline fitting are more consistent with the life-course persistent nature of chronic offending than the traditional cubic polynomial curves. The simulation shows improved performance of the B-spline over cubic polynomials. ConclusionsThe use of B-splines is recommended when fitting group-based trajectory models. Some software products need further development to include such facilities, and we encourage this development.

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“…In a recent review of gender, offending, and the life course, Macmillan and McCarthy [41] conclude that this pattern is largely consistent across the life course-while there are several similarities between males' and females' offending patterns, the main difference is that males are overrepresented in terms of magnitude across all life stages (see also [31]). Both in males and females, the peak age of offending occurs in late adolescence and is followed by a consistent decline through the transition into emergent adulthood and beyond [10,30,33,38,58]. Previous research, although limited, has also found that the association between past and future offending applies to both male and female offenders [3,34,45,51].…”

Section: Background Gender Similarities and Differences In Criminal Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, instead of merely focusing on levels of offending, I illustrate how recidivism processes in males and females vary over a long-term follow-up period. As Liu [38] has argued, descriptive work of this kind, with a focus on patterns, constitutes an important first step before digging further into the underlying mechanisms of gendered differences in offending over the life course (p. 94). To my knowledge, this is the first study that utilizes the timing aspect of recidivism to illustrate the dynamics of recidivism over the long run in a substantial number of convicted females and that makes systematic comparisons with convicted males in this regard.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Catching Up in Crime? Long-Term Processes of Recidivism Across Gender

Sivertsson

2016

J Dev Life Course Criminology

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Purpose While males are heavily overrepresented in almost every crime category that may lead to a conviction, there is ambiguity in the predictive value of gender on recidivism patterns over the life course. By using a complete Swedish birth cohort born in 1965, the present study is able to examine the long-term recidivism patterns in a substantial number of convicted males (N = 27,071) and females (N = 7531) followed up to age 47. The aims are to (1) examine the extent to which long-term recidivism patterns are similar in males and females and (2) assess the predictive power of gender on recidivism as these males and females accumulate additional convictions over the course of their lives. Methods Repeated event history data of criminal convictions is analyzed utilizing detailed information on convictions.Results The analysis shows that the decline over time in the risk for recidivism, as previously demonstrated in male samples, is replicated for females. In connection with the first and second convictions, males had a stronger tendency toward recidivism than females, but the recidivism risk among females becomes increasingly similar to that found among males as convictions accumulate over the life course. The study also shows that being convicted of a drug offense is a more pronounced predictor of recidivism among females than among males. Conclusions The results suggest that the predictive value of gender for recidivism is conditional on criminal history. The results are discussed in the light of developmental and life course theories of continuity in crime.

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Is the Shape of the Age-Crime Curve Invariant by Sex? Evidence from a National Sample with Flexible Non-parametric Modeling

Cited by 30 publications

References 65 publications

A New Look at the Employment and Recidivism Relationship Through the Lens of a Criminal Background Check*

A New Look at the Employment and Recidivism Relationship Through the Lens of a Criminal Background Check*

Smoothing Group-Based Trajectory Models Through B-Splines

Catching Up in Crime? Long-Term Processes of Recidivism Across Gender

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