Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?

Wang, Shuai; Toumi, Ralf; Ye, Qinghua; Ke, Qian; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Tian, Zhan; Sun, Laixiang

doi:10.1002/asl.1058

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 43 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…The radial wind profile is a good approximation to the complete wind field for zero order; however, the asymmetric wind component cannot be ignored, especially when considering its impact on storm surge (Wang et al., 2021). A simple approach for the asymmetrical wind modeling was introduced by Lin and Chavas (2012, hereafter LC12) by adding in a simple empirically estimated surface background wind vector onto the symmetric wind profile.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Models With Application to Storm Tide Simulations

2022

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The hazards induced by tropical cyclones (TCs), for example, high winds, extreme precipitation, and storm tides, are closely related to the TC surface wind field. Parametric models for TC surface wind distribution have been widely used for hazards and risk analysis due to their simplicity and efficiency in application. Here we revisit the parametric modeling of TC wind fields, including the symmetrical and asymmetrical components, and its applications in storm tide modeling in the North Atlantic. The asymmetrical wind field has been related to TC motion and vertical wind shear; however, we find that a simple and empirical background‐wind model, based solely on a rotation and scaling of the TC motion vector, can largely capture the observed surface wind asymmetry. The implicit inclusion of the wind shear effect can be understood with the climatological relationship between the general TC motion and wind shear directions during hurricane seasons. For the symmetric wind field, the widely used Holland wind profile is chosen as a benchmark model, and we find that a physics‐based complete wind profile model connecting the inner core and outer region performs superiorly compared to a wind analysis data set. When used as wind forcing for storm tide simulations, the physics‐based complete wind profile integrated with the background‐wind asymmetry model can reproduce the observed storm tides with lower errors than the often‐used Holland model coupled with a translation‐speed‐based method.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Models With Application to Storm Tide Simulations

2022

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Advancing index-based climate risk assessment to facilitate adaptation planning: Application in Shanghai and Shenzhen, China

Tian

Lyu

Zou

et al. 2022

Advances in Climate Change Research

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On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall

Wang

Toumi

2022

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It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.

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Is the tropical cyclone surge in Shanghai more sensitive to landfall location or intensity change?

Cited by 5 publications

References 43 publications

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Models With Application to Storm Tide Simulations

Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Models With Application to Storm Tide Simulations

Advancing index-based climate risk assessment to facilitate adaptation planning: Application in Shanghai and Shenzhen, China

On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall

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