Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Nielsen, Ingrid; Smyth, Russell

doi:10.1111/j.1536-7150.2010.00714.x

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…It can be concluded that all the variables in the system estimated were I(1) 1 except for conviction rate which is found to be integrated of order 0 or I(0). Findings are consistent with Greenberg (2001) and Narayan et. al.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

The Economic of Deterrence: A Wrong Policy or A Misplaced Strategy?

2019

JEM

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This paper investigates the impact of economics conditions and deterrence variables on disaggregated crime data in Sarawak, using yearly time-series data spanning more than 40 years using a vector error correction estimates. It is proven that economic variables studied serve as motivation of crime in Sarawak and imprisonment does not deter crime in the time period studied. It is evident that imprisonment in the case of Sarawak is less influential in deterring crime or the society were ill informed of the severity of punishment. While the study established a long-run relationship between economics and crime, it is also a noble approach in understanding deterrence in the context of Sarawak. Both economics and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime and in formulating efficient strategy and policies to combat crime. Government should shift the focus of increasing number of police force to increasing awareness on severity of punishments. At the same time, increasing opportunity for legal jobs would be important to deter crime.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

The Economic of Deterrence: A Wrong Policy or A Misplaced Strategy?

2019

JEM

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“…Briefly, it postulates that although crimethwarting policies such as stringent policing and punishment if apprehended can deter criminal activity and reduce crime rates, in the long-run crime will return to its natural level. For instance, Narayan et al (2010) report's results strongly suggest the presence of a natural rate of crime among the G7 group of countries. Thus, it could be argued that if a convergence process in crime rates is established in the case of the sample of European countries used here, it could also be interpreted in terms of the natural crime rate level discourse in the literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Converging crime rates among European countries? A note

Kollias

Leventi

Messis

2018

IJSE

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Purpose Social change and modernization theories postulate that as countries grow they gradually move toward a condition of similarity in various spheres exhibiting similar economic and social traits. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a process of convergence in terms of criminality levels is present in the case of European countries. Design/methodology/approach The research question at hand is tackled through conventional s and ß-convergence methodologies and a battery of unit root tests in the case of 16 European countries over the period 1972-2012. Findings The findings reported, herein, are quite uniform irrespective of the empirical methodology employed to investigate the issue at hand. The result points to a process of convergence in terms of crime rates. However, this convergence process, although present and statistically traceable, is a rather gradual one as this is depicted both by the value of the β-coefficient as well as by the trend of the coefficient of variation. Originality/value Most of the studies in this strand of the literature focus on investigating the association between economic conditions such as unemployment and crime or on the effectiveness of crime thwarting policies. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first paper that addresses the issue of convergence in terms of crime rates in the case of European countries.

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“…They labeled this phenomenon as “Criminals’ Learning by Doing.” This may help explain why, over the long run, the level of crime is positively associated with police expenditures. Similarly, Narayan et al (2010) compiled two annualized time series datasets on violent and property crime reported in the United States from 1960 to 2006 and aggregated total crime rates in Great Britain from 1898 to 1999. They sought to determine if there is such as thing as a natural rate of crime.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Longitudinal Study of Police Differential Response Team Impact on Crime in Houston: A Test of Broken Windows Thesis

Zhao

Zhang

2022

Police Quarterly

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The purpose of this study is to partially test the broken windows thesis, and to evaluate the effect of Houston’s Differential Response Team (DRT) in particular at the patrol division level using crime-related calls for service data (CFS) in the city. Monthly DRT assignment data over a period of 13 years in five different space-time patterns were utilized to estimate the effect of targeted disorder enforcement from 2005 to 2017. Our findings suggest that the DRT overall did not produce significant effects on crime-related calls, with only one out of five space-time patterns showing demonstrable benefit. We highlighted the underlying features generating differential rates of crime across geographic areas as an explanation in the discussion section. The unique feature of this study was the focus on routine police activities as opposed to arrests as the key indicator of law enforcement intervention in the management of crime.

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Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

Cited by 11 publications

References 44 publications

The Economic of Deterrence: A Wrong Policy or A Misplaced Strategy?

The Economic of Deterrence: A Wrong Policy or A Misplaced Strategy?

Converging crime rates among European countries? A note

A Longitudinal Study of Police Differential Response Team Impact on Crime in Houston: A Test of Broken Windows Thesis

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