Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?

Gärtner, Manfred; Wellershoff, Klaus

doi:10.1016/1059-0560(95)90036-5

Cited by 62 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In contrast, analyzing monthly data from 1927 to 1998, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003) find that stock market returns are higher during Democratic administrations (see also Huang 1985). Finally, Gärtner and Wellershoff (1995) report that the stock market performs better during the second half of a presidency, regardless of which party is holding office.…”

Section: Government Partisanship and The Stock Marketmentioning

confidence: 78%

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Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election

Füss

Bechtel

2007

Public Choice

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Section: Government Partisanship and The Stock Marketmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Many studies have tried to uncover the hypothesized effect of government partisanship on stock market performance (Foerster and Schmitz 1997;Gärtner and Wellershoff 1995;Huang 1985). However, the U.S. evidence is inconclusive at best.…”

Section: Government Partisanship and The Stock Marketmentioning

confidence: 98%

Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election

Füss

Bechtel

2007

Public Choice

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“…He also advised investors to stay out of the stock market during the first two years of Republican administrations. Hensel and Ziemba (1995), as well as Gärtner and Wellershoff (1995), note that the predictable political cycle was observed for small and large capitalization stocks alike and that it showed up during both Democratic and Republican rule.…”

Section: Political Business Cycle and Electionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is There a Link between Politics and Stock Returns? A Literature Survey

Wisniewski

2015

SSRN Journal

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This survey starts by reviewing the literature investigating whether political connectedness of companies creates wealth for their shareholders. It then moves on to examine whether there is an association between the orientation of the political executive or the phase of the electoral cycle with movements of the stock market index. The price impact of politically-relevant events, such as wars, terrorist attacks, revolutions, coups or issuance of communications by those in positions of power is also discussed. The review closes with an examination of the impact of political uncertainty on stock markets and with a reflection on the direction of causality.JEL codes: G12; G14; G18; F50

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“…See Niederhoffer et al (1970), Riley and Luksetich (1980), Allvine and O'Neill (1980), Herbst and Slinkman (1984), Huang (1985), Stovall (1992), Hensel and Ziemba (1995), Gärtner and Wellershoff (1995), and Johnson et al (1999). The classification of governments into a left-wing/right-wing scheme is, of course, far from being uncontroversial and may be deemed subjective.…”

Section: Endnotesmentioning

confidence: 99%