Is there really “nothing you can do”? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

Fox-Rogers, Linda; Devitt, Catherine; O’Neill, Eoin; Brereton, Finbarr; Clinch, J. Peter

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.009

Cited by 68 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…As expected, studies that focused on the intention to engage in adaptive behaviour reported stronger positive effect sizes (r = . 29 24 , which may put them at risk of climate-related hazards.…”

Section: Motivational Factors Showing Small To Moderate Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour

2019

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Section: Motivational Factors Showing Small To Moderate Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour

2019

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“…Individual mitigation decisions are often better predicted by subjective or perceptual factors than by objective risk assessment. For effective flood risk management, it is essential to consider how people think and feel about flood risk and about mitigation measures (Fox‐Rogers, Devitt, O'Neill, Brereton, & Clinch, ). There are various strategies for dealing with increasing flood risk, including sharing the loss, bearing the loss, modifying the events, preventing the effects, or changing location (Burton, Kates, & White, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sharing of tangible opinions by experts and other community members is a powerful influencer of mitigation action (Kick et al., ). Flood risk communication campaigns can increase individuals’ perceived ability to implement risk mitigation strategies and willingness to take action (Fox‐Rogers et al., ; Haer, Botzen, & Aerts, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios

2019

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Flood risk is a function of both climate and human behavior, including individual and societal actions. For this reason, there is a need to incorporate both human and climatic components in models of flood risk. This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent-based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a case study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping perception. The community can mitigate or disseminate information to reduce flood risk. Results show that agent behavior and community action have a significant impact on the evolution of flood risk under different climate scenarios. In all scenarios, individual and community action generally result in a decline in damages over time. In a lower flood risk scenario, the decline is primarily due to agent mitigation, while in a high flood risk scenario, community mitigation and agent relocation are primary drivers of the decline. Adaptive behaviors offset some of the increase in flood risk associated with climate change, and under an extreme climate scenario, our model indicates that many agents relocate.

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“…For example, scholars have noted the tendency for populations in areas at high risk of flooding incidence to have excess confidence in existing flood protection measures and a counterintuitive, unwarranted resistance to the adoption of measures at the individual level, such as flood protection insurance or the elevation of homes (Bradford et al, ; Fox‐Rogers et al, ; Ludy & Kondolf, ; Scolobig et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Narratives in Sociohydrological Models of Flood Behaviors

Leong

2018

Water Resources Research

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While current efforts to model sociohydrologic phenomena provide crucial insight, critics argue that these do not fully reflect the complexity one observes empirically in the real world. The policy sciences, with its focus on the interaction between human agency and the institutions that constrain public choice, can complement such efforts by providing a narrative approach. This paper demonstrates this complementarity by investigating the idea of resilience in a community response to floods. Using the quantitative Q methodology, we trace the dynamics of a common sociohydrologic hypothesis—the “memory effect” and how it decreases vulnerability and, more crucially, the instances when such memory effects do not obtain. Our analysis of a floodprone maladaptive community in Assam, India, finds four distinct narrative types: the Hardened Preparer, the Engineer, Discontent, and the Pessimist. This paper put forward an explicitly sociohydrological conception of resilience which takes into account the role of sociological indicators such as narrative types and perceptions. Such contextual understandings and narrative types can form the basis of generic resilience indicators which complement the anticipated outcomes of sociohydrologic models generally.

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Is there really “nothing you can do”? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

Cited by 68 publications

References 65 publications

Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour

Meta-analyses of factors motivating climate change adaptation behaviour

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios

The Role of Narratives in Sociohydrological Models of Flood Behaviors

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