Is trust in government really declining? Evidence using the sequential probability ratio test

Rauh, Jonathan

doi:10.1057/s41269-020-00163-7

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Surveys (Table 4) revealed a certain loss of prestige among public servants, and less confidence in political staff between 2011 and 2020. DMs seem sensitive to a generalized trend of distrust (Houston et al 2016) though it can be overstated (Van de Walle, Van Roosbroek, and Bouckaert 2008; Rauh 2020).…”

Section: Longitudinal Analysis Of Surveys From 1994‐2020mentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing and enduring priorities of Deputy Ministers through the IPAC survey

Dutil¹,

Migone²

2021

Can Public Adm

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Since 1994, the Institute of Public Administration of Canada (IPAC) has conducted a survey among Canadian Deputy Ministers (DM) to measure what administrative issues they considered the most important. Carried out in varying methods, the IPAC surveys present a unique longitudinal dataset that can shed light on the core focus of top administrative executives over the past 25 years. The results show a consistency in DM priorities. The tasks of preparing to respond strategically to improve service delivery and accountability are always present. The mission of managing human resources emerged in 1998 and has been a top priority ever since.Sommaire : Depuis 1994, l'Institut d'administration publique du Canada (IAPC) a mené une enquête auprès des sous-ministres canadiens (SM) pour mesurer les questions administratives qu'ils considéraient comme primordiales. Réalisées selon différentes méthodes, les enquêtes de l'IAPC présentent un ensemble de données longitudinales unique qui peut éclairer les priorités des hauts dirigeants administratifs au cours des 25 dernières années. Les résultats montrent une cohérence dans les priorités des SM. Les tâches de préparation à une réponse stratégique pour améliorer la prestation des services et la responsabilité sont toujours présentes. La mission de gestion des ressources humaines est née en 1998 et est depuis lors une priorité absolue.

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Section: Longitudinal Analysis Of Surveys From 1994‐2020mentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing and enduring priorities of Deputy Ministers through the IPAC survey

Dutil¹,

Migone²

2021

Can Public Adm

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“…For example, Rauh (2016) -in the American context -showed that bad behaviour by elected officials can create changes to oversight, although Schillemans (2008), on the other hand, in the Dutch context, argues that accountability institutions are beholden to hierarchy. Rauh (2021) further shows, in a comparative context, that stochastic shocks generally affect citizens' levels of trust in their government and subsequently demand for greater oversight over the government's use of power -see also Cucciniello et al (2015), and Meijer, Hart, and Worthy (2018).…”

Section: Towards Systemic Explanations For Ihas' Outcomesmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Political Culture Shapes Horizontal Accountability Outcomes: Evidence from 62 Countries

Tomic,

Rauh

2023

Preprint

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Despite omnipresence of oversight bodies, they operate with varying levels of success across countries. Systemic studies of performance of oversight bodies are rare and most with positive findings have been conducted within single countries and operate under neo-institutionalist paradigms. In this study we propose ways in which political culture mediates the effectiveness of oversight bodies. Using data from 62 countries we develop a series of grouped time series models to examine how established measures of political culture affect horizontal accountability. The findings suggest a strong relationship between culture and the effectiveness of horizontal accountability institutions.

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“…Two sequential methods, SPRT and Sequential Bayes Factor Test (SBFT), are recommended in psychological research [27]. Even in politics, sequential analysis has been used, e.g., to generate evidence in determining the level of decline in trust in the government [28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sequential Detection under Correlated Observations using Recursive Method

Suratman,

Istiqomah,

Rahmawati

2024

Jurnal Teknik Elektro

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Sequential analysis has been used in many cases when the decision is supposed to be taken quickly such as for signal detection in statistical signal processing, namely sequential detector. For identical error probabilities, a sequential detector needs a smaller average sample number (ASN) than its counterpart of a fixed sample number quadrature detector based on Neyman-Pearson criteria. The optimum sequential detector was derived based on the assumption that the observations are uncorrelated (independent). However, in realistic scenario, such as in radar, the assumption is commonly violated. Using a sequential detector under correlated observations is sub-optimal and it poses a problem. It demands a high computational complexity, since it needs to recalculate the inverse and the determinant of the signal covariance matrix for each new sample taken. This paper presents a technique for reducing the computational complexity, which involves using recursive matrix inverse to subsequently calculate conditional probability density functions (pdf). This eliminates the need to recalculate the inverse and determinant, leading to a more reasonable solution in real-world scenario. We evaluate the performance of the proposed (recursive) sequential detector by using Monte-Carlo simulations and we use the conventional and non-recursive sequential detectors for comparisons. The results show that the recursive sequential detector has equal probabilities of false alarm and miss-detection with the conventional sequential detector and performs better than the non-recursive sequential detector. In terms of ASN, it maintains comparable results to the two conventional detectors. The recursive approach has reduced the computational complexity for matrix multiplication to from and it also has rendered the calculation of matrix determinant to be unnecessary. Therefore, by having better probabilities of error and reduced computational complexities under correlated observations, the proposed recursive sequential detector may become a viable alternative to obtain a more agile detection system as required in future applications, such as in radar and cognitive radio.

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Is trust in government really declining? Evidence using the sequential probability ratio test

Cited by 11 publications

References 36 publications

The changing and enduring priorities of Deputy Ministers through the IPAC survey

The changing and enduring priorities of Deputy Ministers through the IPAC survey

How Political Culture Shapes Horizontal Accountability Outcomes: Evidence from 62 Countries

Sequential Detection under Correlated Observations using Recursive Method

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