This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time-varying volatility of conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns is correlated and is statistically significant. The pairwise and multivariate causality tests show that conventional bank deposit rates Granger cause returns on PLS accounts. These findings have policy implications in terms of price stability and financial stability.Keywords: Interest rates; Islamic banks; causality; time-varying volatility correlation JEL Classifications: E42; E43; E49; F59; G14; G15; O16
IntroductionIslamic banking has emerged as a mainstream alternative to conventional finance in a growing number of countries.2 Along with the global expansion of conventional modes of financing, the Islamic banking industry has grown significantly since its inception in the early 1970s and moved beyond the confines of a niche market, largely due to greater financial liberalization and an unprecedented inflow of petrodollars to the Middle East (Imam and Kpodar, 2010). The combined balance sheets of Islamic banks grew from $150 billion in 1990 to about $1 trillion in 2010, with more than 300 sharia-compliant institutions operating in 80 countries. While the share of Islamic banking is still small compared to conventional finance at about 1 percent of the global banking system, there is growing interest in sharia-compliant institutions and instruments. Some researchers have argued that Islamic financial institutions are a viable alternative to promote economic growth and are better-suited to absorb macro-financial shocks because of structural advantages over the conventional banking model (Dridi and Hasan, 2010;Ebrahim and Safadi, 1995;Khan, 1986;and Mills and Presley, 1999). On the other hand, El-Gamal (2005) and others have concluded that Islamic finance simply seeks to replicate the functions of conventional financial instruments and is primarily a form of rent-seeking legal arbitrage. The purpose of this study is to offer an empirical analysis of the behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail sharia-compliant profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in two countries where both systems operate.