Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes

Abstract

Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun‐reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot‐collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self‐sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case‐study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.

Seaweed as a Resilient Food Solution After a Nuclear War

“…This means that even in the case that seaweed production is much more unproductive than estimated here, globally there are much larger areas available for growing seaweed than are needed in even the most pessimistic cases. Still, the results show that areas that are currently seen as resilient in a nuclear winter like New Zealand (Boyd & Wilson, 2022) might not be able to further improve their resilience with seaweed, as their coastal waters are either too cold or nutrient poor.…”

Mitigating imported fuel dependency in agricultural production: Case study of an island nation's vulnerability to global catastrophic risks

“…A global catastrophe could cause immense disruption to global trade (Boyd & Wilson, 2022;Green, 1989;Mani, Tzachor, & Cole, 2021). Major trade disruption could lead to shortages of critical commodities, such as liquid fuels, upon which much food production and distribution depends.…”

Combining Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture for Resilience to Global Catastrophic Risks Disrupting Trade: Quantified case study of a median-sized city

“…Collectively these risks are not improbable (Karger et al, 2023) and some risks may be increasing (eg, those associated with arti cial intelligence, bioengineered pandemics and nuclear war). A GCR could cause immense disruption to global trade (Boyd & Wilson, 2022;Green, 1989;Mani, Tzachor, & Cole, 2021). Major trade disruption could lead to shortages of critical commodities, such as liquid fuels, necessary for industrial food production and distribution.…”