Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone

Yeung, Laurence Y.; Murray, Lee T.; Martinerie, Patricia; Witrant, Emmanuel; Hu, Huanting; Banerjee, Asmita; Orsi, Anaïs; Chappellaz, J.

doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1277-1

Cited by 95 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…The subsequent ozone increase (Figures 7 and 8d) of about 4 ppb (~15%) during 1910 to 1940, in our experiment, is close to the 11% increase simulated by [10], and 16% obtained from direct ozone measurements at mountain sites [5]. Our simulations of the rate of the tropospheric ozone increase agree with the isotope analysis of air trapped in the ice and snow, as well as with results from the GISS-E2.1 model [41].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…The simulated annual mean tropospheric ozone mixing ratio in 1910 varies between 15 and 30 ppb over the northern mid-latitudes depending on the location and season, which overestimates 10 to 15 ppb obtained from direct surface ozone measurements at different locations in central Europe [6,10]. It should be noted, however, that these historical measurements probably underestimate ozone mixing ratios due to interference from water vapor and other species [41]. The subsequent ozone increase (Figures 7 and 8d) of about 4 ppb (~15%) during 1910 to 1940, in our experiment, is close to the 11% increase simulated by [10], and 16% obtained from direct ozone measurements at mountain sites [5].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

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Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

et al. 2020

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The ozone layer is well observed since the 1930s from the ground and, since the 1980s, by satellite-based instruments. The evolution of ozone in the past is important because of its dramatic influence on the biosphere and humans but has not been known for most of the time, except for some measurements of near-surface ozone since the end of the 19th century. This gap can be filled by either modeling or paleo reconstructions. Here, we address ozone layer evolution during the early 20th century. This period was very interesting due to a simultaneous increase in solar and anthropogenic activity, as well as an observed but not explained substantial global warming. For the study, we exploited the chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM driven by all known anthropogenic and natural forcing agents, as well as their combinations. We obtain a significant global scale increase in the total column ozone by up to 12 Dobson Units and an enhancement of about 20% of the near-surface ozone over the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that the total column ozone changes during this period were mainly driven by enhanced solar ultra violet (UV) radiation, while near-surface ozone followed the evolution of anthropogenic ozone precursors. This finding can be used to constrain the solar forcing magnitude.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

et al. 2020

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“…As a reactive gas ozone cannot currently be kept in containers nor does it persist in snow without ongoing loss. Hence no current measurements of past concentrations are possible (although they may be inferred from isotopic measurements of oxygen trapped in ice (Yeung et al, 2019)). It is also not possible to transport a sample of gas containing a known concentration of ozone from one location to another without ozone loss occurring within the container.…”

Section: Standards For the Measurement Of Ozone In The Atmospherementioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric ozone from 1877 to 2016, observed levels, trends and uncertainties

Tarasick

Galbally

Cooper

et al. 2019

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

164

168

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From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In this study, various ozone measurement methods and ozone datasets are reviewed and selected for inclusion in the historical record of background ozone levels, based on relationship of the measurement technique to the modern UV absorption standard, absence of interfering pollutants, representativeness of the well-mixed boundary layer and expert judgement of their credibility. There are significant uncertainties with the 19th and early 20th-century measurements related to interference of other gases. Spectroscopic methods applied before 1960 have likely underestimated ozone by as much as 11% at the surface and by about 24% in the free troposphere, due to the use of differing ozone absorption coefficients.There is no unambiguous evidence in the measurement record back to 1896 that typical mid-latitude background surface ozone values were below about 20 nmol mol -1 , but there is robust evidence for increases in the temperate and polar regions of the northern hemisphere of 30-70%, with large uncertainty, between the period of historic observations, 1896-1975, and the modern period (1990-2014). Independent historical observations from balloons and aircraft indicate similar changes in the free troposphere. Changes in the southern hemisphere are much less. Regional representativeness of the available observations remains a potential source of large errors, which are difficult to quantify.The great majority of validation and intercomparison studies of free tropospheric ozone measurement methods use ECC ozonesondes as reference. Compared to UV-absorption measurements they show a modest (~1-5% ±5%) high bias in the troposphere, but no evidence of a change with time. Umkehr, lidar, and FTIR methods all show modest low biases relative to ECCs, and so, using ECC sondes as a transfer standard, all appear to agree to within one standard deviation with the modern UV-absorption standard. Other sonde types show an increase of 5-20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970-1995. Biases and standard deviations of satellite retrieval comparisons are often 2-3 times larger than those of other free tropospheric measurements. The lack of information on temporal changes of bias for satellite measurements of tropospheric ozone is an area of concern for long-term trend studies.

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“…Stevenson et al, 2013), the diversity in modelled PD tropospheric O3 burden across multi-model ensembles (e.g. Young et al, 2018), uncertainties in historical emissions of tropospheric O3 precursors, and the apparent inability of current state-of-the-art chemistry models to replicate near-recent observed trends in tropospheric O3 (Parrish et al, 2014;Young et al, 2018) although recently, isotopic measurements seem to corroborate the modelled trends (Yeung et al, 2019). Additional uncertainties in Stevenson et al (2013) arise from neglecting the change in O3 in the lower stratosphere attributable to changes in tropospheric O3 precursors and the contribution from stratospheric O3 depletion on the modelled changes in tropospheric O3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1

O’Connor¹,

Abraham²,

Dalvi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Quantifying forcings from anthropogenic perturbations to the Earth System (ES) is important for understanding changes in climate since the pre-industrial period. In this paper, we quantify and analyse a wide range of present-day (PD) anthropogenic climate forcings with the UK's Earth System Model (ESM), UKESM1, following the protocols defined by the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In particular, by quantifying effective radiative forcings (ERFs) that include rapid adjustments within a full ESM, it enables the role of various climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud feedbacks to be quantified. Global mean ERFs are 1.83, 0.13, &#8722;0.33, and 0.93&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2 at the PD (Year 2014) relative to the pre-industrial (PI; Year 1850) for carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, ozone-depleting substances, and methane, respectively. The PD total greenhouse gas ERF is 2.89&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2, larger than the sum of the individual GHG ERFs. UKESM1 has an aerosol forcing of &#8722;1.13&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2. A relatively strong negative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions and a small negative instantaneous forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions are partially offset by a substantial forcing from black carbon absorption. Internal mixing and chemical interactions mean that neither the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions nor aerosol-cloud interactions are linear, making the total aerosol ERF less than the sum of the individual speciated aerosol ERFs. Tropospheric ozone precursors, in addition to exerting a positive forcing due to ozone, lead to oxidant changes which in turn cause an indirect aerosol ERF, altering the sign of the net ERF from nitrogen oxide emissions. Together, aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursors (near-term climate forcers, NTCFs) exert a global mean ERF of &#8722;1.12&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2, mainly due to changes in the cloud radiative effect. There is also a negative PD ERF from land use (&#8722;0.32&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2). It is outside the range of previous estimates, and is most likely due to too strong an albedo response. In combination, the net anthropogenic ERF is potentially biased low (1.61&#8201;W&#8201;m&#8722;2) relative to other estimates, due to the inclusion of non-linear feedbacks and ES interactions. By including feedbacks between greenhouse gases, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, aerosols, and clouds, some of which act non-linearly, this work demonstrates the importance of ES interactions when quantifying climate forcing. It also suggests that rapid adjustments need to include chemical as well as physical adjustments to fully account for complex ES interactions.

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Isotopic constraint on the twentieth-century increase in tropospheric ozone

Cited by 95 publications

References 65 publications

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

Ozone Layer Evolution in the Early 20th Century

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric ozone from 1877 to 2016, observed levels, trends and uncertainties

Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1

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