Ocellulose were different between years and individuals, and mostly captured by the model, suggesting that the single-substrate hypothesis is a good approximation for tree ring studies on Pinus pinaster, at least for the environmental conditions covered by this study. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the model was mostly affected by five isotopic discrimination factors and two leaf gas-exchange parameters. Modelled early wood signals were also very sensitive to the date when cell wall thickening begins (twt). Our model could therefore be used to reconstruct twt time series and improve our understanding of how climate influences this key parameter of xylogenesis.