It’s about Time: A Method for Estimating Wildfire Arrival and Weather Conditions at Field-Sampled Locations

Abstract

Weather conditions at the time of wildfire front arrival strongly influence fire behavior and effects, yet few methods exist for estimating weather conditions more spatio-temporally resolved than coarse-grain (e.g., 4 km) daily averages. When a fire front advances rapidly and weather conditions are heterogeneous over space and time, greater spatio-temporal precision is required to accurately link fire weather to observed fire effects. To identify the influence of fire weather on fire effects observed across a sample of existing forest inventory plots during a wind-driven megafire event in the US Pacific Northwest, we explored and compared three methods for estimating time of fire arrival and the wind speed at that arrival time for each plot location. Two methods were based on widely used, remotely sensed active fire data products with dissimilar spatial and temporal resolutions. The third and preferred method, Modeled-Weather Interpolated Perimeters (MoWIP), is a new approach that leveraged fine-grained (1.3 km, hourly) wind speed and direction from modeled fire weather to guide interpolation of aerial infrared-detected (IR) operational perimeters, subdividing the time intervals defined by sequential IR perimeters into quartile intervals to enhance temporal resolution of predicted fire arrival times. Our description of these fire arrival “time stamp” methods and discussion of their utility and shortcomings should prove useful to fire scientists, ecologists, land managers, and future analyses seeking to link estimated fire weather and observed fire effects.