Iteratively forecasting biological invasions with PoPS and a little help from our friends

Abstract

Ecological forecasting has vast potential to support environmental decision making with repeated, testable predictions across management-relevant timescales and locations. Yet resource managers rarely use co-designed forecasting systems or embed them in decision making. Although prediction of planned management outcomes is particularly important for biological invasions to optimize when and where resources should be allocated, spatial-temporal models of spread typically have not been openly shared, iteratively updated, or interactive to facilitate exploration of management actions. We describe a species-agnostic, open-source framework -called the Pest or Pathogen Spread (PoPS) Forecasting Platform -for co-designing near-term iterative forecasts of biological invasions. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate that iterative calibration yields higher forecast skill than using only the earliest-available data to predict future spread. The PoPS framework is a primary example of an ecological forecasting system that has been both scientifically improved and optimized for real-world decision making through sustained participation and use by management stakeholders.

Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions

“…Treatments have the same impact on the forecast, regardless of which interface they were designed with. The user designates treatment polygons using either felt markers in PoPS Tangible Landscape or a point-andclick draw tool in PoPS Forecasting Platform (Petrasova et al 2018, Jones et al 2021a. If a cell intersects a treatment polygon, all infected trees and a proportion of susceptible trees (relative to the cell area covered by the polygon) are removed.…”

“…1). Importantly, stakeholder feedback guided the development of both systems to improve usability (Gaydos et al 2019, Jones et al 2021a.…”

“…(1) carry out model functions, (2) vary parameters to explore forecast uncertainty, (3) visualize ecological trajectories, and (4) assess how interventions alter these trajectories (Cunniffe et al 2015, Jones et al 2021a. With these capacities, interfaces can unmask the analytical power of forecasts, especially for less tech-savvy stakeholders, enabling them to easily contribute their perspectives (Gaydos et al 2019).…”

“…Yet, little is known about how different forecasting interfaces function as boundary objects. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) are a common and compelling option because they have long been the paradigm for humancomputer interaction and can be web-based, enabling widespread access (Dix et al 2004, Cunniffe et al 2015, Jones et al 2021a). However, it is unclear how GUIs function as boundary objects.…”

“…Ecological forecasts are important tools for understanding and controlling biological invasions (Dietze et al 2018). They have been used to identify high-risk areas, expose dispersal patterns, and assess how human interventions are likely to impact spread trajectories, making them quite valuable for crafting control strategies (Gilligan and van den Bosch 2008, Cunniffe et al 2016, Jones et al 2021a). Yet, these capabilities may be moot if decision-makers themselves cannot interact directly with the forecasts.…”