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Asian Development Bank InstituteThe Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI's working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.ADB recognizes "China" as the People's Republic of China; "Hong Kong" as Hong Kong, China; and "Korea" as the Republic of Korea. Shin-ichi Fukuda is professor of economics at the University of Tokyo.The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building, 8th Floor 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, JapanTel:+81-3-3593-5500 Fax:+81-3-3593-5571 URL:www.adbi.org E-mail: info@adbi.org
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to explore the spillover effects Japan's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) had on Asian financial markets. Unlike the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) without a negative interest rate, the NIRP not only had limited impacts on Japan's economy but also raised a serious concern about profitability of local financial institutions. It is thus likely that its spillover effects are very different from those of the QQE without a negative interest rate. In the analysis, we examine spillover effects on Asian stock markets. We find that Japan's long-term interest rate had significant negative effects on Asian stock prices during the NIRP period. We also find that the spillover effects were especially significant through a decline of excess returns in Japan's finance sector. The results imply that the NIRP that lowered the long-term rate below zero might have benefited Asian economies. We discuss that this might have happened because local financial institutions who lost their profit opportunities in domestic markets explored a new p...