Java Language Program Application on Predicting the Next Earthquake in Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract-This paper applied the use of Java programming language to create a program named Java Earthquake Program (JEP) used to forecast the next earthquake in Indonesia. The 133 earthquake events from United States Geological Survey (USGS) occurred in the period of 1954 to 2012 were used to build the program. Three probabilistic models were used to model the earthquake data in Indonesia which are normal, gamma, and beta distributions. The goodness fit tests result from Java earthquake program (JEP) confirmed that gamma distribution is reliable to model the earthquake data in Indonesia. The calculation result of maximum conditional probability from JEP indicated that the next earthquake will be occurred on the date range of August 27, 2012 to February 19, 2013 with M w ≥ 5.0. This exactly confirmed that JEP is reliable to predict the earthquake recurrence time in Indonesia.Index Terms-Java earthquake program (JEP), gamma, earthquake recurrence time.