Job search, transition to employment and discouragement among older unemployed welfare recipients in Germany

Nivorozhkin, Anton; Nivorozhkin, Eugene

doi:10.1111/spol.12657

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The increasing LFPR among older age groups underscore the necessity to design inclusive labor policies that cater to the needs of an aging workforce. As a result, a considerable number of senior employees have indicated a readiness to prolong their retirement [61], [62]. Nevertheless, mounting evidence indicates that social inequality is widening as one approaches retirement from the workforce.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 2001-2047: A Case Study in Malaysia

Ramli,

Ismail,

Isa

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The ageing global population and changing labor force participation are having a profound impact on state pension programs worldwide, including Malaysia. However, the effects of an ageing workforce and declining fertility rates are having a significant impact on future trends in labor force participation and the duration of retirement. This paper presents an innovative examination of labor force participation rate (LFPR) forecasting within the context of an aging workforce, utilizing the Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake Dowd stochastic models, traditionally applied to mortality data. By adapting these models to LFPR data, the study offers a novel perspective on predicting workforce participation trends and understanding the dynamics of retirement planning from year 2001 to 2047. Additionally, by incorporating the mortality forecasts from the United Nations, the research navigates through the complexities of applying actuarial methods to labor economics, revealing differentiated pathways for male and female participation in the labor market and the anticipated length of retirement. This study offers a unique comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) LFPR models. It focuses on fitting and forecasting the LFPR of senior employees aged 50 to 64. The results highlighted discrepancies among models that demonstrated evidence of model risk for extended retirement duration.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 2001-2047: A Case Study in Malaysia

Ramli,

Ismail,

Isa

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…After the implementation of pension system reforms, the projected retirement age in Germany has increased. Consequently, many older workers have expressed their willingness to extend their retirement [69,70]. However, evidence suggests a growing disparity in social inequality during the transition from work to retirement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 1989-2066: Comparison of Several OECD Countries

Ramli,

Ismail,

Isa

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The world population is aging, which along with recent shifts in the labor force participation (LFP), is having a significant longevity influence on state pension programs across the board, including Canada, Finland, Japan, and Germany. Except Japan, these countries have set their statutory re-tirement age at 65, but the impact of aging workforce and declined fertility rates create wonders on the estimate future trends in the LFP, as well as the length of retirement. In this study, we fit the LFP rates of these countries, representing continents from Asia, Europe and North America among the OECD countries, using the Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) stochastic models. The es-timates are then used for the projection of future LFP rates (1989-2066), and by combining the mortality forecasts from the United Nations, we project the expected length of retirement (1989-2066). This study provided a novel comparison between the Lee-Carter and the CBD LFP models by fitting and forecasting the LFP rates of senior employees between 50- to 74-year-olds. The results revealed disparities between models that provided proof of the presence of model risk for longer retirement durations. The study findings emphasized the importance for decision-makers in pension industry to have awareness of potential risks and limits associated with the LFP models. The Lee-Carter model outperformed the CBD model even though the CBD model is known for its ac-curate prediction in higher ages. Population aging should be considered in any analysis of the long-term viability of pensions, together with the participation rate trends for a sustainable labor market future.

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“…Moreover, given technological change, skills older jobseekers were originally trained for may have become obsolete (Dietz and Walwei, 2011). At long unemployment durations, discouragement can amplify difficulties of regaining employment (Henkens et al, 1996;Nivorozhkin and Nivorozhkin, 2020), and can decrease older jobseekers' job search intensity (Zacher, 2013;de Coen et al, 2015). Wuebbeke (2011) finds that older welfare recipients tended to choose early retirement not so much due to a preference for more leisure, but due to discouragement and a perceived lack of adequate support by public employment agencies.…”

Section: Long-term Unemploymentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity of employment biographies and prospects of middle-aged welfare recipients

Zabel

2023

Longitudinal and Life Course Studies

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Employment re-entry opportunities decrease with age. For middle-aged welfare benefit recipients, employment obstacles connected to age exacerbate further disadvantages connected to welfare receipt. At the same time, there is considerable diversity in middle-aged welfare benefit recipients’ long-term employment trajectories, which has thus far received little attention. Policies aim to increase labour market participation at higher ages. To this end, it is important to understand specific difficulties and to be realistic when formulating goals for people with very diverse types of employment histories. Using large-scale register data, this paper’s focus is on a cohort aged 45–54 in August 2012 in Germany. Sequence analysis aids in identifying characteristics relevant to employment histories over the past 19 years, from January 1993 to July 2012. Subsequent employment outcomes over the time span September 2012 to December 2018 are investigated, differentiating between jobs of different quality, and effects of training programmes on these outcomes are analysed using entropy balancing methods. Findings are that middle-aged welfare recipients’ employment biographies are very diverse, ranging from very little employment experience, over long histories of intermittent employment, to long continuous employment histories. Employment history attributes significantly affect employment prospects. The analyses further show that it is not too late to invest in skills, independent of employment history type.

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Job search, transition to employment and discouragement among older unemployed welfare recipients in Germany

Cited by 5 publications

References 47 publications

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 2001-2047: A Case Study in Malaysia

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 2001-2047: A Case Study in Malaysia

Labor Force Participation Rate and Expected Length of Retirement 1989-2066: Comparison of Several OECD Countries

Diversity of employment biographies and prospects of middle-aged welfare recipients

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