Joint atmospheric-terrestrial water balances for East Africa: a WRF-Hydro case study for the upper Tana River basin

Kerandi, Noah M.; Arnault, Joël; Laux, Patrick; Wagner, Sven; Kitheka, Johnson U.; Kunstmann, Harald

doi:10.1007/s00704-017-2050-8

Cited by 81 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…In the future, a more in‐depth sensitivity analysis of the WRF‐Hydro model parameters could be beneficial. Nonetheless, the performance of WRF‐Hydro in this study is comparable to those previously reported in the literature (Givati et al, ; Kerandi et al, ; Naabil et al, ; Salas et al, ; Silver et al, ; Yucel et al, ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short‐ to Medium‐Range Timescales

Sharma

Siddique

Reed

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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We investigate the ability of hydrological multimodel ensemble predictions to enhance the skill of streamflow forecasts at short-to medium-range timescales. To generate the multimodel ensembles, we implement a new statistical postprocessor, namely, quantile regression-Bayesian model averaging (QR-BMA). Quantile regression-Bayesian model averaging uses quantile regression to bias correct the ensemble streamflow forecasts from the individual models and Bayesian model averaging to optimally combine their probability density functions. Additionally, we use an information-theoretic measure, namely, conditional mutual information, to quantify the skill enhancements from the multimodel forecasts. We generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at lead times from 1 to 7 days using three hydrological models: (i) Antecedent Precipitation Index-Continuous, (ii) Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model, and (iii) Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system. As forcing to the hydrological models, we use weather ensemble forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11-member Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2. The forecasting experiments are performed for four nested basins of the North Branch Susquehanna River, USA. We find that after bias correcting the streamflow forecasts from each model, their skill performance becomes comparable. We find that the multimodel ensemble forecasts have higher skill than the best single-model forecasts. Furthermore, the skill enhancements obtained by the multimodel ensemble forecasts are found to be dominated by model diversity, rather than by increased ensemble size alone. This result, obtained using conditional mutual information, indicates that each hydrological model contributes additional information to enhance forecast skill. Overall, our results highlight benefits of hydrological multimodel forecasting for improving streamflow predictions.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short‐ to Medium‐Range Timescales

Sharma

Siddique

Reed

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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“…Figure 15 illustrates the ensemble mean and range of the 14-day filtered terms of the differential atmospheric water budget (equation (7)) between WRF and WRF-Hydro ensembles. It shows that evapotranspiration differences between the WRF and WRF-Hydro simulations are small in comparison to the other terms of the budget and that precipitation differences are mainly related to differences in atmospheric water transport through the budget area, that is, I-O in equation (7), as, for example, in Kerandi et al (2018). This suggests that the precipitation differences between WRF and WRF-Hydro members in the budget area are mainly driven by internal model variability and that the increase of evapotranspiration amounts in WRF-Hydro has a minor contribution.…”

Section: 1029/2018jd029004mentioning

confidence: 95%

Role of Lateral Terrestrial Water Flow on the Regional Water Cycle in a Complex Terrain Region: Investigation With a Fully Coupled Model System

et al. 2019

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Recent developments in hydrometeorological modeling aim toward a more sophisticated treatment of terrestrial hydrologic processes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of lateral terrestrial water flows on the regional atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle in a humid region of Central Europe. This is accomplished by evaluating model results from both the standard Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the hydrologically enhanced version WRF‐Hydro, which allows for a more comprehensive process description of the interdependencies between water and energy fluxes at the land‐atmosphere interface. To account for internal model variability, an ensemble for each model variant is generated for a 3‐month study period in the summer of 2005. The regional water cycle in the simulation domain is investigated by evaluating the ensemble results with a joint atmospheric‐terrestrial water budget analysis. We focus on six differently sized river catchments located in Southern Bavaria (Germany) and the southerly adjacent Eastern Alps, where simulation results are compared to observations of precipitation, near‐surface temperatures, and streamflow. Most prominently, WRF‐Hydro increases (near‐) surface runoff and decreases percolation, resulting in a reduced total runoff amount. Accordingly, soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration are increased. Domain‐averaged precipitation differences between WRF and WRF‐Hydro are essentially related to differences in atmospheric moisture inflow and outflow, which is the signature of internal model variability and is potentially enhanced in the WRF‐Hydro ensemble. Driven only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, the fully coupled model system shows good performance in the reproduction of observed streamflow.

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“…In order to analyze the atmospheric fluxes and the regional water cycle over the ENB, two additional bulk characteristics were used following References [25,[38][39][40]: precipitation efficiency (χ) and moisture recycling ratio (β).…”

Section: Atmospheric Water Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have investigated water balance using either atmospheric or terrestrial water storage. Kerandi et al [25] applied a fully coupled modeling system for the weather research and forecasting (WRF) and WRF-Hydro models over the upper Tana River Basin at Kenya. Two nesting domains were used for the WRF simulation, with spatial resolutions of 25 km and 5 km, respectively, while a 500 m routing resolution was used for the WRF-Hydro model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of A Regional Climate Model for the Eastern Nile Basin: Terrestrial and Atmospheric Water Balance

et al. 2019

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The study of water balance is considered here as a way to assess the performance of regional climate models and examine model uncertainty and as an approach to understanding regional hydrology, especially interactions between atmospheric and hydrological processes. We studied the atmospheric and terrestrial water balance over the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB) region using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The model performance in simulating precipitation and surface air temperature is assessed by comparing the model output with the data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center dataset for precipitation and from the University of Delaware for temperature. The results show that the simulated and observed values correlate well. In terms of water balance, the study region was found to be a sink for moisture, where the atmospheric convergence is negative during most of the time. Most of the precipitation originates from moisture fluxes from outside the domain, and the contribution of local evapotranspiration to precipitation is limited, with small values for the moisture recycling ratios year-round. The atmospheric moisture content does not show significant monthly or annual variation. The results indicate that the terrestrial water storage varies seasonally, with negative fluxes during most of the year, except June, July, and August, when most of the precipitation occurs.

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Joint atmospheric-terrestrial water balances for East Africa: a WRF-Hydro case study for the upper Tana River basin

Cited by 81 publications

References 41 publications

Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short‐ to Medium‐Range Timescales

Hydrological Model Diversity Enhances Streamflow Forecast Skill at Short‐ to Medium‐Range Timescales

Role of Lateral Terrestrial Water Flow on the Regional Water Cycle in a Complex Terrain Region: Investigation With a Fully Coupled Model System

Evaluation of A Regional Climate Model for the Eastern Nile Basin: Terrestrial and Atmospheric Water Balance

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