Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016

Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López‐Quílez, Antonio; Prieto, Alexander Torres

doi:10.3201/eid2506.180392

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Medellin had the highest proportion of “undifferentiated fevers” in the health care facility diagnosis that were later reported to SIVIGILA as either dengue, chikungunya, or Zika. Similarly, this could be associated with the low number of cases of chikungunya and Zika in Medellin, compared to the presence of these diseases in Cali and Villavicencio and the rest of the country [ 29 , 60 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

et al. 2021

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Background Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities. Methodology/Principal findings To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014–2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses’ reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21–70%) followed by Zika (6–45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias. Conclusions These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses’ reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

et al. 2021

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“…Some studies reported other associations, such as the presence and persistence of rheumatic pain and aging for CHIKV ( 30 ), and the possibility of death with DENV ( 29 , 31 ) and CHIKV ( 32 ) infections. Being a male child and an elderly man have been associated with DENV and CHIKV infections ( 33 , 34 ), but other studies have described an increased risk of CHIKV infection in older women ( 35 ) and increased risk of ZIKV and DENV infections in children of both sexes ( 36 , 37 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rev Panam Salud Publica 47, 2023 | www.paho.org/journal | https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2023. 34 CHIKV has reached several regions of Europe and Asia and it was reported for the first time in the Americas and the Caribbean in 2013. In 2015, almost 1 million cases were reported, which resulted in 7 126 deaths.…”

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confidence: 99%

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic review

Santos

Aquino

Fernandes

et al. 2023

Revista Panamericana De Salud Pública

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Objectives. To characterize the distribution profile of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections in Latin America and the Caribbean and to identify possible factors associated with the risk of dissemination and severity of these arboviruses. Methods. The protocol of this review was registered on the PROSPERO platform. Searches were carried out in the following databases: Virtual Health Library, MEDLINE/PubMed, and Embase. The search terms were: Zika virus, Zika virus infection, dengue, dengue virus, chikungunya virus, chikungunya fever, epidemiology, observational study, Latin America, and Caribbean region. Studies that addressed the distribution of these arboviruses and the risk factors associated with dengue, Zika virus disease, and chikungunya, published between January 2000 and August 2020 in English, Portuguese, and Spanish, were included. Results. Of 95 studies included, 70 identified risk factors, clinical manifestations, and outcomes for arbovirus infections and 25 described complications and/or deaths. The highest frequency of confirmed cases was for dengue. Brazil reported most cases of the three arboviruses in the period analyzed. Environmental and socioeconomic factors facilitated the proliferation and adaptation of vectors, and host-related factors were reported to aggravate dengue. Most deaths were due to chikungunya, Zika virus disease caused most neurological alterations, and dengue resulted in greater morbidity leading to more frequent hospitalization. Conclusions. The review provides a broad view of the three arboviruses and the intrinsic aspects of infections, and highlights the factors that influence the spread of these viruses in the populations studied.

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“…Dengue notification in Colombia is mandatory and cases are individually registered in the national surveillance system (SIVIGILA), using the locally validated and standardized codes 210 and 220 for dengue and severe dengue, respectively (27). We chose to use this dataset given the availability and to avoid the potential threat of misclassification with other arboviruses when using data of notified cases from 2014 and onwards, when Chikungunya and zika were introduced in the country (13, 28).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Colombia is one of the Latin American countries with the highest burden of dengue (3, 4) and within Colombia, dengue burden concentrates geographically in 50 of the 778 municipalities that routinely report dengue cases (1, 2, 12, 13). Given the spatial heterogeneity of dengue distribution, including its concentration in low socioeconomic settings, and the limitations of current dengue control strategies (14-18), it is important to investigate the spatial distribution of dengue cases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A joint spatial marked point process model for dengue and severe dengue in Medellin, Colombia

Carabalí

Restrepo

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The spatial distribution of surveillance-reported dengue cases and severity are usually analyzed separately, assuming independence between the spatial distribution of non-severe and severe cases. Given the availability of data for the individual geo-location of surveillance-notified dengue cases, we conducted a cross-sectional study to model non-severe and severe dengue simultaneously, identifying the spatial patterns of dengue distribution, using individual and area level covariates within a hierarchical Bayesian model. Results showed that age and socioeconomic status were associated with dengue presence, and there was evidence of clustering for overall cases but not for severity. Our findings inform decision making to address the preparedness or implementation of dengue control strategies at the local level.HighlightsA model to jointly assess the spatial distribution of reported dengue and severity.We account for uncertainty in the surveillance-reported dengue while modelling severe cases.We assess spatial clustering using individual locations of dengue cases in Medellin.Young age was associated with higher dengue rates and older age to dengue severity.Non-monotonic distribution of reported dengue cases across socioeconomic status.

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Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015–2016

Cited by 8 publications

References 32 publications

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus infections in Latin America and the Caribbean: a systematic review

A joint spatial marked point process model for dengue and severe dengue in Medellin, Colombia

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