Joint Modeling of Health Care Usage and Longevity Uncertainty for an Insurance Portfolio

Piulachs, Xavier; Alemany, Ramón; Guillén, Montserrat; Serrat, Carles

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-19704-3_24

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Our findings differ from those presented in Piulachs et al (2015) for two reasons: (i) we only consider demand for certain specific types of medical care, which we believe to be more closely associated with emergency or severe conditions; and, (ii) we include a censoring mechanism because, clearly, some subjects are still alive at the end of the study period. A joint model for men and women, including a parameter for sex, is employed in Piulachs et al (2016); however, the significance of this parameter suggests that a separate analysis is needed.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 91%

“…Our findings differ from those presented in Piulachs et al (2015) for two reasons: we only consider the demand for certain specific types of medical care, which we believe to be more closely associated with emergency or severe conditions; and we include a censoring mechanism because, clearly, some subjects are still alive at the end of the study period. …”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 89%

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Emergency care usage and longevity have opposite effects on health insurance rates

Piulachs¹,

Alemany

Guillén

2017

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To study the price of health insurance for individuals aged 65 years and over. Methodology: A sample of private health policyholders in Spain is analysed. Joint models are estimated for men and women, separately. A log-linear model of the transformed cumulated number of claims associated with emergency room occupation, ambulance use and hospitalization is estimated, together with a proportional hazard survival model. Findings: The association between the longitudinal process of severe medical care and the survival time process is positive and highly significant for both men and women. An increase in the price of health insurance due to the effect of a larger number of emergency care demand events is slightly offset by the decrease in expected longevity. Practical implications: The effect of an increase in the number of claims is small compared to the reduction in survival, so age still plays a central role in rate making. Originality: The proposed methodology allows dynamic rates to be designed, so that the price of health insurance can change as new usage information becomes available.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 91%