Joint Seasonal /Annual Flood Frequency Analysis

Durrans, Stéphanie; Eiffe, M. A.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Goranflo, H. Morgan

doi:10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(2003)8:4(181)

Cited by 36 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Assuming that the year is divided into N seasons in which flood distributions are independent of each other, the cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of the annual maximum flood F Q Y is given by the product (e.g. Waylen and Woo, 1982;Durrans et al, 2003)…”

Section: Parameterisation Of Seasonal and Annual Flood Frequency Distmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One example is the problem of crossing over: in the probability plot, the annual distribution must always lie on or above the highest seasonal distribution (Durrans et al, 2003), i.e. the probability of one peak value of being exceeded in the entire year must be higher than the probability of the same value being exceeded in one season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among the contributions that are explicitly dedicated to inferring flood occurrence in different seasons, it is worth mentioning McCuen and Beighley (2003), who focused on filling the gaps of seasonal data records, and in particular Durrans et al (2003), who first considered alternative approaches to jointly estimate seasonal and annual flood frequency distributions. However, their methods are based on adapting the skewness coefficient of seasonal distributions to ensure a satisfactory fit of the annual peak flows, thereby putting more emphasis on the annual distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales

Baratti

Montanari

Castellarin

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.We propose an original approach to infer the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scale. Our purpose is to estimate the peak flow that is expected for an assigned return period T , independently of the season in which it occurs (i.e. annual flood frequency regime), as well as in different selected sub-yearly periods (i.e. seasonal flood frequency regime). While a huge literature exists on annual flood frequency analysis, few studies have focused on the estimation of seasonal flood frequencies despite the relevance of the issue, for instance when scheduling along the months of the year the construction phases of river engineering works directly interacting with the active river bed, like for instance dams. An approximate method for joint frequency analysis is presented here that guarantees consistency between fitted annual and seasonal distributions, i.e. the annual cumulative distribution is the product of the seasonal cumulative distribution functions, under the assumption of independence among floods in different seasons. In our method the parameters of the seasonal frequency distributions are fitted by maximising an objective function that accounts for the likelihoods of both seasonal and annual peaks. In contrast to previous studies, our procedure is conceived to allow the users to introduce subjective weights to the components of the objective function in order to emphasize the fitting of specific seasons or of the annual peak flow distribution. An application to the time series of the Blue Nile daily flows at the Sudan-Ethiopia border is presented.

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Section: Parameterisation Of Seasonal and Annual Flood Frequency Distmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales

Baratti

Montanari

Castellarin

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Thus, comparing the annual with the seasonal distributions we encountered the problem of cross-over in the probability plot: the annual distribution must always lie on or above the highest seasonal distribution (Waylen, and Woo 1982, Durrans et al 2003, Baratti et al 2012, Prosdocimi et al 2014. For example, the probability of one peak value being exceeded in an entire year must be higher than the probability of the same value being exceeded in one season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of seasonal flood peak dependence on annual maxima design quantiles

Debele

Bogdanowicz

Strupczewski

2017

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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If the maximum annual peak flow series are a mixture of summer and winter flows, a seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis is necessary. While considering seasonal maxima as mutually independent events, the annual maxima distribution is defined as the product of seasonal distributions. However, if the independency assumption does not hold, a bivariate approach with dependent margins should be applied, i.e. the copula approach. The impact of dependency on design quantiles is investigated here in the context of the Fréchet-Hoeffding inequality defining copula bounds and the definition of dependency. The results of the two approaches are compared using six catchments in the San River basin, where in four cases the dependency of seasonal maxima has been identified as positive significant and no strong dominance of any one season is observed. The product model leads to higher estimates of design quantiles than do models where the dependency is taken into account and, therefore, is safe. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…In their paper the frequency distribution of the annual maximum flood is expressed as the sum of the frequency distributions of those annual maximum floods that are conditioned on occurring, respectively, in the first, second … season with the probability weight that an annual maximum occurs in that season. Durrans et al (2003) proposed an approximate and practically useful, but theoretically incorrect, approach to joint seasonal/annual flood frequency analysis. They recommended two modelling approaches, one in which the annual distribution was derived from the seasonal LP3 distributions (called a seasonal-to-annual method), and another in which one of the seasonal distributions was derived from the annual LP3 and remaining seasonal LP3 distributions (called a combined method).…”

Section: Seasonal Model Based On Conventional Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-identical models for seasonal flood frequency analysis

Fang

Wang

Liu

et al. 2007

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The aim is to build a seasonal flood frequency analysis model and estimate seasonal design floods. The importance of seasonal flood frequency analysis and the advantages of considering seasonal design floods in the derivation of reservoir planning and operating rules are discussed, recognising that seasonal flood frequency models have been in use for over 30 years. A set of non-identical models with non-constant parameters is proposed and developed to describe flows that reflect seasonal flood variation. The peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling method was used, as it is considered to provide significantly more information on flood seasonality than annual maximum (AM) sampling and has better performance in flood seasonality estimation. The number of exceedences is assumed to follow the Poisson distribution (Po), while the peak exceedences are described by the exponential (Ex) and generalized Pareto (GP) distributions and a combination of both, resulting in three models, viz. Po-Ex, Po-GP and Po-Ex/GP. Their performances are analysed and compared. The Geheyan and the Baiyunshan reservoirs were chosen for the case study. The application and statistical experiment results show that each model has its merits and that the Po-Ex/GP model performs best. Use of the Po-Ex/GP model is recommended in seasonal flood frequency analysis for the purpose of deriving reservoir operation rules.Key words seasonal flood; frequency analysis; POT sampling; non-identical model Modèles non-identiques pour l'analyse fréquentielle saisonnière des cruesRésumé L'objectif est de construire un modèle d'analyse fréquentielle saisonnière des crues et d'estimer des crues de projet saisonnières. L'importance de l'analyse fréquentielle saisonnière des crues et les avantages de la prise en compte de crues de projet saisonnières pour la planification et les règles de gestion des réservoirs sont discutés, compte tenu de l'utilisation de modèles fréquentiels saisonniers de crues depuis plus de trente ans. Un ensemble de modèles non-identiques avec des paramètres nonconstants est proposé et développé pour décrire les écoulements qui reflètent les variations saisonnières des crues. La méthode d'échantillonnage par renouvellement-dépassement (POT) a été utilisée, étant considérée fournir significativement plus d'information sur la saisonnalité des crues que l'échantillonnage du maximum annuel (MA) et ayant une meilleure performance pour l'estimation de la saisonnalité des crues. Le nombre de dépassements est supposé suivre une distribution de Poisson (Po), tandis que les pics des dépassements sont décrits par des distributions exponentielle (Ex) et Pareto généralisée (PG) et par une combinaison des deux, ce qui conduit à trois modèles: Po-Ex, Po-GP et PoEx/GP. Leurs performances sont analysées et comparées. Les réservoirs de Geheyan et de Baiyunshan ont été choisis comme cas d'étude. La mise en oeuvre et les résultats de l'analyse statistique montrent que chaque modèle a des avantages et que le modèle Po-Ex/GP a les meilleures performances. L'utili...

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Joint Seasonal /Annual Flood Frequency Analysis

Cited by 36 publications

References 3 publications

Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales

Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales

The impact of seasonal flood peak dependence on annual maxima design quantiles

Non-identical models for seasonal flood frequency analysis

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