“Just Right” Policing: a Job for Science

Sherman, Lawrence W.

doi:10.1007/s41887-022-00080-z

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Our results and the uncertainty about the neighborhood effects underscore the need for more research aimed at determining the amount of policing in various contexts that is "just right" (Sherman, 2022). We need to know how much and what types of policing are needed in what neighborhoods and for what types of problems.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

When police pull back: Neighborhood‐level effects of de‐policing on violent and property crime, a research note

Nix,

Huff,

Wolfe

et al. 2024

Criminology

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Many U.S. cities witnessed both de‐policing and increased crime in 2020, yet whether the former contributed to the latter remains unclear. Indeed, much of what is known about the effects of proactive policing on crime comes from studies that evaluated highly focused interventions atypical of day‐to‐day policing, used cities as the unit of analysis, or could not rule out endogeneity. This study addresses each of these issues, thereby advancing the evidence base concerning the effects of policing on crime. Leveraging two exogenous shocks presented by the onset of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic and social unrest after the murder of George Floyd, we evaluated the effects of sudden and sustained reductions in high‐discretion policing on crime at the neighborhood level in Denver, Colorado. Multilevel models accounting for trends in prior police activity, neighborhood structure, seasonality, and population mobility revealed mixed results. On the one hand, large‐scale reductions in stops and drug‐related arrests were associated with significant increases in violent and property crimes, respectively. On the other hand, fewer disorder arrests did not affect crime. These results were not universal across neighborhoods. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of debates concerning the appropriate role of policing in the 21st century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

When police pull back: Neighborhood‐level effects of de‐policing on violent and property crime, a research note

Nix,

Huff,

Wolfe

et al. 2024

Criminology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As we move forward, our results and the uncertainty about the neighborhood effects underscores the need for more research aimed at determining the amount of policing in various contexts that is "just right" (Sherman, 2022). We need to know how much and what types of policing activity are needed in what neighborhoods and for what types of problems.…”

Section: Differences In Policing Effects Across Neighborhoodsmentioning

confidence: 98%

When police pull back: Neighborhood-level effects of de-policing on violent and property crime

Nix¹,

Huff²,

Wolfe³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Many U.S. cities witnessed both de-policing and increased crime in 2020, yet it remains unclear whether the former contributed to the latter. Indeed, much of what is known about the effects of proactive policing on crime comes from studies that evaluate highly focused interventions atypical of day-to-day policing, use cities as the unit of analysis, or cannot rule out endogeneity. This study addresses each of these issues, thereby advancing the evidence base concerning the effects of policing on crime. Leveraging two exogenous shocks presented by the onset of COVID-19 and social unrest following the murder of George Floyd, we evaluated the effects of sudden and sustained reductions in high-discretion policing on crime at the neighborhood level in Denver. Multilevel models accounting for trends in prior police activity, neighborhood structure, seasonality, and population mobility revealed mixed results. On one hand, large-scale reductions in pedestrian stops and drug-related arrests were associated with significant increases in violent and property crimes, respectively. On the other hand, fewer vehicle stops and disorder arrests did not affect crime. These results were not universal across neighborhoods. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of debates concerning the appropriate role of policing in the 21st century.

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“…But for many police leaders, close tracking of racial inequalities in homicide victimisation would amount to "false precision". Police already have "good enough" knowledge to do their job, they could say (Sherman, 2022a). All they need to know is that young Black men are murdered at much higher rates than young White males, or any other demographic category.…”

Section: Homicide Inequality As a Bellwether For Unequal Crime Victim...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Fall and Rise of Racial Inequality in London Homicides: a Challenge for Policing by Consent

Sherman

Strang

2022

Camb J Evid Based Polic

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Research Question How have London’s racial and demographic disparities in homicide victimisation rates changed in 2 decades of the twenty-first century, with what implications for policing by consent? Data We collected Metropolitan Police Service homicide victimisation counts in London for each financial year (April through March) so far in the twenty-first century, by race, gender and age. We also collected the estimated residential population size of those groups from the 2001 and 2011 Census results. Methods We divided the number of homicides each year in each demographic category by the estimated population size of that category, and then computed victimisation rates per 100,000 for each of the 21 years. We plotted trends in the rates of each group over time, whilst calculating ratios between victimisation rates of Blacks and Whites, and of South Asians and Whites, in each year. Findings Over the past 2 decades in London, Black homicide victimisation rates have fallen by almost half, but they remain about 5 times higher than homicide victimisations of Whites and South Asians. Inequality of homicide rates between Black and White victimisations declined substantially, but then became worse: the most recent 5 years showed 19% more inequality than in the century’s first 5 years. Three major changes in homicide inequalities have occurred since 2001: (A) The total Black homicide victimisation rate dropped by 71% from 2001 to 2014; (B) homicides of Blacks then increased by 92% in the 5 years to 2019–2020, whilst the White victimisation rate remained unchanged; (C) from 2019 to 2022, Black victimisation rates declined again by 27%, whilst White rates also declined, by 26%. Young Black males aged 16–24 were 10 to 20 times more likely than White counterparts to become homicide victims in 2017–2022. Yet Black female homicide victimisation dropped by 82% over 21 years. Female inequality reduced from up to 400% higher for Black females than Whites at the beginning of the century to 67% higher in the most recent 5 years. For Asians of all ages, inequality of homicide victimisations to Whites disappeared by 2022. Inequality persisted between young Asian males and young White males. Conclusion Changes in London’s racial inequality in homicide victimisation are both substantial and volatile. Understanding their fall and rise may help police to renew and sustain reductions of racial inequality in risks of violence. Learning lessons about what police may have done to cause substantial reductions in Black victimisation requires both retrospective and ongoing tracking of both homicide and policing at local levels. Providing transparent tracking is also essential to public dialogue about policing strategies, which could help to renew policing by consent based on precise statistical evidence.

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“Just Right” Policing: a Job for Science

Cited by 3 publications

References 7 publications

When police pull back: Neighborhood‐level effects of de‐policing on violent and property crime, a research note

When police pull back: Neighborhood‐level effects of de‐policing on violent and property crime, a research note

When police pull back: Neighborhood-level effects of de-policing on violent and property crime

The Fall and Rise of Racial Inequality in London Homicides: a Challenge for Policing by Consent

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