Kamu Gelir-Harcama Bağlantısı: Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the asymmetric relationship between government revenues and expenditures for Turkish economy. In this study, the data cover the period of 2006Q1-2019Q3. In this study, unliker the literature, the relationship between variables is investigated asymmetrically. The asymmetric causality relationships were tested by using Asymmetric Causality Test developed by Hatemi-J (2012). The asymmetric causality approach divides the series into two as positive shocks and negative shocks and captures nonlinear effects in the series. The data of this study contain quarterly observations of the total expenditures, total revenues and tax revenues based on sub-items over the 2006: Q1-2019: Q3 time period for the Turkish economy. In this study, because of data constraint, the data started in 2006: Q1.The empirical findings of this study indicate that the Fiscal Synchronization Hypothesis is valid for the relationships between total expenditures and total revenues. However, when the relationship between total expenditures and tax revenues is evaluated, it is seen that the Spend-and-Tax Hypothesis is valid. According to the findings, there is bidirectional causality between total revenues and government expenditures in Turkish economy, symmetrically. There is a symmetric bidirectional causality between tax revenues and government expenditures. Also, negative cumulative total revenues cause the negative cumulative expenditures, asymmetrically.