“…The Justice and Development Party ( Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AKP) in Turkey is now enjoying the longest period of one-party government in modern Turkey. The literature well established that the electoral system (D’Hondt) with the highest threshold in the world (10%—since 2019, 7%) the charismatic-populist leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the manipulation of ethnic and religious cleavages largely contributed to that success (See, e.g., Arslantaş & Arslantaş, 2020b; Arslantaş & Kaiser, 2022; Arslantaş et al, 2020). These elements, however, do not account for the ups and downs in the AKP's vote share.…”