Keeping up with sea-level rise: Carbonate production rates in Palau and Yap, western Pacific Ocean

Woesik, Robert van; Cacciapaglia, Christopher William

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0197077

Cited by 24 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…3–4 mm/year (Hubbard, ) and a little below this in the Indo‐Pacific region (Dullo, ). Whilst some high coral cover sites may sustain vertical accretion rates sufficient to match near‐future sea‐level rise (van Woesik & Cacciapaglia, ), the critical point is that many contemporary coral reefs are now defined by vertical accretion rates that will be insufficient to keep pace with sea‐level rise. Indeed, recent assessments of reef accretion potential at sites around the tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions suggest that accretion rates presently average only 1.8 mm/year and 2.0 mm/year, respectively (Perry et al., ).…”

Section: Impacts On Rates and Patterns Of Reef Growth (The Reducing Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing geo‐ecological functions of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The ecology of many coral reefs has changed markedly over recent decades in response to various combinations of local and global stressors. These ecological changes have important implications for the abundance of taxa that regulate the production and erosion of skeletal carbonates, and thus for many of the geo‐ecological functions that coral reefs provide, including reef framework production and sediment generation, the maintenance of reef habitat complexity and reef growth potential. These functional attributes underpin many of the ecosystem goods and services that reefs provide to society. Rapidly changing conditions of reefs in the Anthropocene are likely to significantly impact the capacity of reefs to sustain these geo‐ecological functions. Although the Anthropocene footprint of disturbance will be expressed differently across ecoregions and habitats, the end point for many reefs may be broadly similar: (a) progressively shifting towards net neutral or negative carbonate budget states; (b) becoming structurally flatter; and (c) having lower vertical growth rates. It is also likely that a progressive depth‐homogenisation will occur in terms of these processes. The Anthropocene is likely to be defined by an increasing disconnect between the ecological processes that drive carbonate production on the reef surface, and the net geological outcome of that production, that is, the accumulation of the underlying reef structure. Reef structures are thus likely to become increasingly relict or senescent features, which will reduce reef habitat complexity and sediment generation rates, and limit reef potential to accrete vertically at rates that can track rising sea levels. In the absence of pervasive stressors, recovery of degraded coral communities has been observed, resulting in high net‐positive budgets being regained. However, the frequency and intensity of climate‐driven bleaching events are predicted to increase over the next decades. This would increase the spatial footprint of disturbances and exacerbate the magnitude of the changes described here, limiting the capacity of many reefs to maintain their geo‐ecological functions. The enforcement of effective marine protection or the benefits of geographic isolation or of favourable environmental conditions (“refugia” sites) may offer the hope of more optimistic futures in some locations. A >plain language summary is available for this article.

show abstract

Section: Impacts On Rates and Patterns Of Reef Growth (The Reducing Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing geo‐ecological functions of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Maximum calcium carbonate production under modern‐day climate is approximately 12 kg CaCO 3 m −2 (Edinger et al ), although higher values have been reported (Perry et al , van Woesik and Cacciapaglia ). For the purpose of this model, however, given the spatial resolution of 9.2 km, we assumed that carbonate production was most optimal, in a given locality, i , in the presence of all four species.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Porites lobata and P. rus are generally more tolerant to thermal stress than Acropora species (Loya et al ). To rationalize our approach of selecting four coral species, instead of modeling all of the hundreds of extant coral species, we point to recent studies in Micronesia that found that over 80% of carbonate production of a given reef was contributed by as few as five coral species (van Woesik and Cacciapaglia 2019), and in general less than 10% of the coral species contributed upwards of 75% of the reef's carbonate production (van Woesik and Cacciapaglia ). Furthermore, although dominant coral species differ across reefs, there is considerable functional redundancy in terms of carbonate production, with different dominant species producing similar rates of carbonate production (van Woesik and Cacciapaglia , 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Herbivorous parrotfish erosion was estimated using a regression from estimated densities of urchins and parrotfish following Eq. 9 derived from studies in Micronesia (van Woesik and Cacciapaglia ) and in the Caribbean (Perry et al ):

…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most significant inhibitor of carbonate production on modern reefs is the repeated thermal‐stress events that result in coral bleaching and mortality (Loya et al , Hoegh‐Guldberg et al , Perry et al ). Future carbonate production will depend on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario experienced within the next century, on the intensity and frequency of the resulting thermal‐stress events (Perry et al , van Woesik and Cacciapaglia ), and on the spatial distributions and thermal tolerances of major‐reef building organisms that have the capacity to build reefs (Fig. 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

Cacciapaglia

Woesik

2020

Ecography

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A rapid increase in sea-level rise is generating vertical accommodation space on modern coral reefs. Yet increases in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are reducing the capacity of coral reefs to keep up with sea-level rise. We use ensemble species distribution models of four coral species (Porites rus, Porites lobata, Acropora hyacinthus and Acropora digitifera) to gauge potential geographic differences in gross carbonate production. Net carbonate production was estimated by considering erosional rates of ocean acidification, increasing cyclone intensity, local pollution, fishing pressure and the projected burdens of increases in SSTs (under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) through to the year 2100. Our models predict that only 4 ± 0.1% (~60 000 km 2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs are projected to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 -most of which will be located near the Equator. However, with drastic reductions in emissions (under RCPs 4.5 and 6.0 Wm −2 ), we predict that 15 ± 0.3% (~250 000 km 2 ) (under RCP 4.5 Wm −2 ) and 12 ± 0.7% (~200 000 km 2 ) (under RCP 6.0 Wm −2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs, have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100. Yet the burdens of fishing pressure and its cascading effects are projected to be responsible for substantial reef erosion, nearly halving the number of reefs able to keep up with sea-level rise. If action is taken immediately and emissions are drastically reduced to RCPs 4.5 or 6.0 Wm −2 , and reef management reduces the burdens of local pollution and fishing pressure, then our model predicts that 21-27% (~350 000-470 000 km 2 ) of Indo-Pacific coral reefs -most of which will be located near the Equator -would have the potential to keep up with sea-level rise by the year 2100.

show abstract

Disturbances drive changes in coral community assemblages and coral calcification capacity

Courtney

Barnes

Chollett³

et al. 2020

Ecosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Anthropogenic environmental change has increased coral reef disturbance regimes in recent decades, altering the structure and function of many coral reefs globally. In this study, we used coral community survey data collected from 1996 to 2015 to evaluate reef-scale coral calcification capacity (CCC) dynamics with respect to recorded pulse disturbances for 121 reef sites in the Main Hawaiian Islands and Mo'orea (French Polynesia) in the Pacific and the Florida Keys Reef Tract and St. John (U.S. Virgin Islands) in the western Atlantic. CCC remained relatively high in the Main Hawaiian Islands in the absence of recorded widespread disturbances; declined and subsequently recovered in Mo'orea following a crown-ofthorns sea star outbreak, coral bleaching, and major cyclone; decreased and remained low following coral bleaching in the Florida Keys Reef Tract; and decreased following coral bleaching and disease in St. John. Individual coral taxa have variable calcification rates and susceptibility to disturbances because of their differing life-history strategies. As a result, temporal changes in CCC in this study were driven by shifts in both overall coral cover and coral community composition. Analysis of our results considering coral lifehistory strategies showed that weedy corals generally increased their contributions to CCC over time while the contribution of competitive corals decreased. Shifts in contributions by stress-tolerant and generalist corals to CCC were more variable across regions. The increasing frequency and intensity of disturbances under 21st century global change therefore has the potential to drive lower and more variable CCC because of the increasing dominance of weedy and some stress-tolerant corals.

show abstract

Keeping up with sea-level rise: Carbonate production rates in Palau and Yap, western Pacific Ocean

Cited by 24 publications

References 55 publications

Changing geo‐ecological functions of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

Changing geo‐ecological functions of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

Reduced carbon emissions and fishing pressure are both necessary for equatorial coral reefs to keep up with rising seas

Disturbances drive changes in coral community assemblages and coral calcification capacity

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About