Key Challenges in Modelling an Epidemic – What Have we Learned from the COVID-19 Epidemic so far

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Mathematical modelling can be useful for predicting how infectious diseases progress, enabling us to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Different modelling techniques have been used to predict and simulate the spread of COVID-19, but they have not always been useful for epidemiologists and decision-makers. To improve the reliability of the modelling results, it is very important to critically evaluate the data used and to check whether or not due regard has been paid to the different ways in which the disease spreads through the population. As building an epidemiological model that is reliable enough and suits the current epidemiological situation within a country or region, certain criteria must be met in the modelling process. It might be necessary to use a combination of two or more different types of models in order to cover all aspects of epidemic modelling. If we want epidemiological models to be a useful tool in combating the epidemic, we need to engage experts from epidemiology, data science and statistics.</jats:p>

Association between preventive behaviour and anxiety at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Slovenia

“…However, there has been no study on how preventive measures are applied. Compliance with preventive measures is one of the most important factors that should be considered in epidemic modelling in order to cover all the aspects that could influence it ( 26 ).…”

COVID-19 anxiety, psychological well-being and preventive behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean: relationships and explanatory model

“…Additionally, compliance with preventive behaviors is an important factor to consider in models relating different variables during the pandemic (Eržen et al, 2020). In this study, it was also suggested that anxiety had an indirect impact on well-being through the performance or non-performance of preventive behaviors.…”

Vloga epidemiološkega modeliranja COVID-19 v zdravstvenem sistemu

“…Pri zamejevanju in upravljanju z epidemijo so pomembno orodje matematični modeli razvoja epidemije. Z ustreznimi epidemiološkimi modeli lahko izvajamo simulacije in predvidimo različne scenarije, vendar moramo pri tem uporabljati ustrezno metodologijo in ustrezne epidemiološke modele (Eržen, Kamenšek, Fošnarič, & Žibert, 2020). Slednje v osnovi delimo na fenomenološke, oddelčne in agentne.…”

“…With appropriate epidemiological models, simulations and prediction of different scenarios can be performed. However, appropriate methodology and epidemiological models must be applied (Eržen, Kamenšek, Fošnarič, & Žibert, 2020). Epidemiological models are divided into phenomenological, departmental and agent.…”