Key principles of constructing probabilistic statistical ionosphere models for the radiowave propagation problems

Abstract

It is demonstrated that it is required to create probabilistic statistical models of the ionosphere for calculating radio propagation in a wide frequency range. This, in fact, presents a new type of ionospheric modeling. These models are classified into pure statistical and deterministic stochastic. We describe the key principles of building such models, present some examples of their construction, and discuss some difficulties arising from them.

Analyzing Existing Applied Models of the Ionosphere for Calculating Radio Wave Propagation and Possibility of Their Use for Radar Systems. I. Classification of Applied Models and the Main Requirements Imposed on Them for Radar Aids

“…This classification can be useful, for example, for setting tactical and technical requirements for ionospheric research, requirements for models, and in some other cases. The classification described below considerably refines the proposals for classification of medium models formulated in [Becker et al, 2013;Kozlov et al, 2014Kozlov et al, , 2018Aksenov et al, 2017a].…”

“…Oddly enough, there is no full classification of ionospheric models now, despite the obvious need for its development (some attempts have been made in [Becker et al, 2013;Kozlov et al, 2014Kozlov et al, , 2018Aksenov et al, 2017a]). This classification can be useful, for example, for setting tactical and technical requirements for ionospheric research, requirements for models, and in some other cases.…”

“…However, the use of statistical data from deterministic models allows us to obtain only mean estimates of propagation conditions, without probabilistic features of their occurrence in different geophysical situations, thus making it impossible to assess probabilistic features of radar output. It is, therefore, better to use probabilistic and statistical models of the ionosphere at the design stage [Kozlov et al, 2014], which can answer the question: what radar characteristics (and with what probability) occur under different space weather conditions.…”

Analysis of electron density calculations using deterministic-probabilistic model of the ionospheric D-region

“…Today's commonly used deterministic methods of describing environment ignore irregularity and continuous variability of the ionosphere, and hence are inadequate for real-time correction of radar data. In the last few years, using the ionospheric D-region and VLF-LF propagation through the ionosphere as an example, a principally new direction in modeling -probabilisticstatistical -has been actively developed [Kozlov et al, 2014]. Probabilistic-statistical models provide distribution densities of ionospheric parameters in all combinations of heliogeophysical conditions.…”

“…Two directions of the probabilistic-statistical modeling have been validated so far: deterministicprobabilistic and empirical-statistical [Kozlov et al, 2014]. The purpose of this work is to calculate PDFs of N e , using the deterministic-probabilistic (D-P) approach and analyzing results.…”