SummaryWe prospectively followed a cohort of 278 non-insulin-dependent (NIDDM) patients for a 6-year period, intending to estimate the rate of increase of albuminuria and to identify clinical variables that influence this increase. At baseline, normoalbuminuria (N) was seen in 74 %, microalbuminuria (M) in 19 % and 7 % presented with proteinuria (P). A total of 80patients died; they were older (p < 0.001) and had higher albumin excretion both at baseline and as an average during follow-up (p < 0.01). At baseline, patients with proteinuria had higher blood pressures (systolic and diastolic), whereas there was no difference between patients with normo-and microalbuminuria. Glycaemic control was increasingly poor throughout the three groups. At follow-up, an average relative rate of increase of albuminuria (slope) of 17 % per year was seen both for patients with complete 6 years, follow-up (n = 135) and patients with at least 4 years follow-up (n = 178). Slope correlated significantly with systolic blood pressure (r = 0.26 and 0.29) in both groups, diastolic blood pressure only in the 4-year group (r = 0.22) and average albuminuria in both (r = 0.31 and 0.24). By multiple regression analyses systolic blood pressure and average albuminuria remained with significant influence on slope. Progression was defined as an increase in the category (e. g. normoto microalbuminuria) as well as an increase of more than 20 % in albumin excretion, and was seen in 46 patients with at least 4 years' follow-up. Progressors (patients demonstrating progression) had higher systolic blood pressure (165 mmHg + 20 vs 156 + 17) and poorer glycaemic control (HbAm: 8.2 % + 1.5 vs 7.7 + 1.3) p < 0.05, as well as a higher level of albuminuria at baseline. The present study points to systolic blood pressure and general level of albuminuria as factors determining the rate of progression of albuminuria. However, only a modest fraction of the variation between subjects was explained by these variables. [Diabetologia (1994[Diabetologia ( ) 37: 1251[Diabetologia ( -1258 Key words Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, albuminuria, blood pressure, rate of progression, progressors, glycaemic control. Abbreviations: IDDM, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus; NIDDM, non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus; N, normal urinary albumin excretion; M, microalbuminuria; R proteinuria; Slope, relative rate of increase; UAC, urinary albumin concentration; UAE, urinary albumin excretion rate.The natural development of diabetic nephropathy pertaining to patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes (NIDDM) is poorly elucidated [1,2]. In insulin-dependent diabetes (IDDM) approximately 30 % of patients eventually develop end-stage renal failure [3], whereas in NIDDM the proportion is much lower (less than 10 %) at least in elderly Caucasian populations [4][5][6][7]. Persistent microalbuminuria (i. e. a urinary albumin excretion (UAE) from 20 ~g/min to 200 ~g/min) in patients with IDDM defines the state of incipient nephropathy [3], which is the state from which appr...