Kidney Volume and Risk of Incident Kidney Outcomes

Abstract

Background: Low total kidney volume (TKV) is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, evaluations of nonlinear relationships, incident events, causal inference, and prognostic utility beyond traditional biomarkers are lacking. Methods: TKV, height-adjusted TKV, and body surface area-adjusted TKV (BSA-TKV) of 34,595 White British ancestry participants were derived from the UK Biobank. Association with incident CKD, acute kidney injury (AKI), and cardiovascular events were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models. Prognostic thresholds for CKD risk stratification were identified using a modified Mazumdar method with bootstrap resampling. Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed to assess the bidirectional association of genetically predicted TKV with kidney and cardiovascular traits. Results: Adjusted for eGFR and albuminuria, a lower TKV of 10 mL was associated with a 6% higher risk of incident CKD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 1.08, P = 5.8 x 10-6) in contrast to no association with incident AKI (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.02, P = 0.66). Comparison of nested models demonstrated improved accuracy over the CKD Prognosis Consortium Incident CKD Risk Score with the addition of BSA-TKV or prognostic thresholds at 119 (10th percentile) and 145 mL/m2 (50th percentile). In Mendelian randomization, a lower genetically predicted TKV by 10 mL was associated with 10% higher CKD risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.14, P = 1.3 x 10-7). Reciprocally, an elevated risk of genetically predicted CKD by 2-fold was associated with a lower TKV by 7.88 mL (95% CI -9.81 to -5.95, P = 1.2 x 10-15). There were no significant observational or Mendelian randomization associations of TKV with cardiovascular complications. Conclusions: Kidney volume was associated with incident CKD independent of traditional risk factors including baseline eGFR and albuminuria. Mendelian randomization demonstrated a bidirectional relationship between kidney volume and CKD.