Kilometer-scale trends and variability of the Adriatic present climate (1987–2017)

Tojčić, Iva; Denamiel, Cléa; Vilibić, Ivica

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06700-2

Cited by 9 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 112 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Notably, in 2012, a sharp salinity increase is associated with a sharp decrease in temperature, indicating the arrival of highly saline waters in the northern Adriatic during autumn 2011, reaching dense water sites in winter 2012. As previously demonstrated, the AdriSC bottom salinity variations within the JP mostly follow the BiOSdriven quasi-decadal oscillations and the influence of the EMT (Denamiel et al, 2022) but also longer positive trends (Tojčić et al, 2023). PDA can be noticed in 2017, restricting the dense water cascading during this event just in the Jabuka Pit, with much lower intensity in the Southern Adriatic Pit.…”

Section: Accumulation Sitessupporting

confidence: 54%

“…Further, a slight salinity decrease occurred after 2013 in both subdomains, followed by an average increase and peaking at 38.7 in 2017. Finally, for both generation sites, positive trends (Tojčić et al, 2023) and influence of the quasi-decadal BiOS-driven phases (Denamiel et al, 2022) are noticeable in the AdriSC bottom salinity time series.…”

Section: Dense Water Generationmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…These phases approximately present a 2-year lag compared to the BiOS signal in the Ionian Sea and are anticyclonic for the 1990-1999-2011periods and cyclonic for the 1987-1989, 2000Roether et al, 2007) conditions in the 1990s, the strongest anticyclonic BiOS-driven phase in the AdriSC model occurred during the 1990-1999 period. Further, Tojčić et al (2023) analysed the AdriSC atmosphere-ocean trends and variability for the 1987-2017 period and found positive salinity trends over the entire Adriatic Seaparticularly strong in the intermediate layer over the Jabuka Pit and at the bottom of the dense water generation sitesassociated with a shallowing of the advection of the saline Levantine Intermediate Water inflow into the Adriatic, a decrease of the AdDW outflow, and a shrinking plus weakening of the Southern Adriatic Gyre at the centre of the SAP.…”

Section: Adriatic Sea and Coast (Adrisc) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, the historical AdriSC simulation was successfully evaluated against in situ and remote-sensing products in both atmosphere (Denamiel et al, 2021b) and ocean (Pranić et al, 2021). Compared to the state-ofthe-art Mediterranean and Adriatic models, the AdriSC climate model was demonstrated to not only reduce atmosphere-ocean biases but also to better reproduce the Adriatic Sea dynamics, including the quasi-decadal salinity and current oscillations (Denamiel et al, 2022) driven by the Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS; Gačić et al, 2010;Civitarese et al, 2023), the NAddW dynamics in 2015 (Pranić et al, 2023) and the 31-year atmosphere-ocean trends and variability (Tojčić et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Kilometre-Scale Assessment of the Adriatic Dense Water Multi-Decadal Dynamics

Pranić,

Denamiel,

Vilibić

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The North Adriatic Dense Water (NAddW) – the densest Mediterranean water generated by extreme cooling during wintertime hurricane-strength winds – drives the thermohaline circulation, ventilates the deep layers, and changes the biogeochemical properties of the Adriatic Sea. However, modelling the dynamical properties of such dense water at the climate scale has been a challenge for decades due to the complex coastal geomorphology of the Adriatic basin not properly reproduced by existing climate models. To overcome these deficiencies, a 31-year-long simulation (1987-2017) of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometre-scale atmosphere-ocean model is used to analyse the main NAddW dynamical phases (i.e., generation, spreading and accumulation). The study highlights four key results. First, during winter, the NAddW densities are higher in the shallow northern Adriatic shelf than in the deeper Kvarner Bay – where 25-35% of the overall NAddW are found to be generated – due to a median bottom temperature difference of 2°C between the two generation sites. Second, the NAddW mass transported across most of the Adriatic peaks between February and May, except along the western side of the Otranto Strait. Third, for the accumulation sites, the bottom layer of the Kvarner Bay is found to be renewed annually while the renewal occurs every 1–3 years in the Jabuka Pit and every 5–10 years in the deep Southern Adriatic Pit. Fourth, the NAddW cascading and accumulation is more pronounced during basin-wide high-salinity conditions driven by circulation changes in the northern Ionian Sea.

show abstract

Section: Accumulation Sitessupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Dense Water Generationmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Adriatic Sea and Coast (Adrisc) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Kilometre-Scale Assessment of the Adriatic Dense Water Multi-Decadal Dynamics

Pranić,

Denamiel,

Vilibić

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The last decades saw the development of 3D models coupling transport and biogeochemistry at the Adriatic or sub-Adriatic scale, with increasing degree of accuracy (e.g., Zavatarelli et al, 2000;Polimene et al, 2007;Spillman et al, 2007;Scroccaro et al, 2022). However, up to now, predictions/forecasts of future changes have only been derived from (a) pioneering research using 1D models at certain sites (Vichi et al, 2003), and (b) larger-scale 3D models that lack the resolution needed to accurately describe the intricate circulation patterns and biogeochemical dynamics of the Adriatic Sea (e.g., Teruzzi et al, 2014;Macias et al, 2018;Richon et al, 2019;Butenschön et al, 2021;Reale et al, 2022;Tojčić et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

Mentaschi,

Lovato,

Butenschön

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats and open waters support a range of species and contribute to the region's ecological and economic significance. Unraveling the consequences of the ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential to ensure the future safeguard of this basin. To tackle this problem, we developed a biogeochemical model for the entire basin, with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km and 120 vertical levels, forced by the projections of atmosphere, hydrology and ocean circulation between 1992 and 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. The changes projected between 2031–2050 and 1992–2011 were evaluated on ecoregions characterized by different trophic conditions, identified using a k-medoid classification technique. The results point toward a generalized oligotrophication of the basin, especially intense in the northern estuarine areas, driven by a substantial decrease in river discharge projected for the rivers of the Po Plain. This scenario of unproductive and declining resources, together with the ongoing warming, salinization, and acidification of marine waters, cast doubt on the long-term resilience of the Northern Adriatic food web structure, which has evolved to thrive in high trophic conditions. The outcome of this study provides the stakeholders with a tool to understand how potential long-term decreases in the regimes of the Northern Adriatic Rivers could affect the marine ecosystem and its goods and services in the future.

show abstract

Understanding Climate Risks in the Adriatic Basin

Gioia

2024

Disaster Risk Reduction

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Kilometer-scale trends and variability of the Adriatic present climate (1987–2017)

Cited by 9 publications

References 112 publications

Kilometre-Scale Assessment of the Adriatic Dense Water Multi-Decadal Dynamics

Kilometre-Scale Assessment of the Adriatic Dense Water Multi-Decadal Dynamics

Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

Understanding Climate Risks in the Adriatic Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About