Kindergarten conduct problems are associated with monetized outcomes in adolescence and adulthood

Abstract

BackgroundAcross several sites in the United States, we examined whether kindergarten conduct problems among mostly population‐representative samples of children were associated with increased criminal and related (criminal + lost offender productivity + victim; described as criminal + victim hereafter) costs across adolescence and adulthood, as well as government and medical services costs in adulthood.MethodsParticipants (N = 1,339) were from two multisite longitudinal studies: Fast Track (n = 754) and the Child Development Project (n = 585). Parents and teachers reported on kindergarten conduct problems, administrative and national database records yielded indexes of criminal offending, and participants self‐reported their government and medical service use. Outcomes were assigned costs, and significant associations were adjusted for inflation to determine USD 2020 costs.ResultsA 1SD increase in kindergarten conduct problems was associated with a $21,934 increase in adolescent criminal + victim costs, a $63,998 increase in adult criminal + victim costs, a $12,753 increase in medical services costs, and a $146,279 increase in total costs. In the male sample, a 1SD increase in kindergarten conduct problems was associated with a $28,530 increase in adolescent criminal + victim costs, a $58,872 increase in adult criminal + victim costs, and a $144,140 increase in total costs. In the female sample, a 1SD increase in kindergarten conduct problems was associated with a $15,481 increase in adolescent criminal + victim costs, a $62,916 increase in adult criminal + victim costs, a $24,105 increase in medical services costs, and a $144,823 increase in total costs.ConclusionsThis investigation provides evidence of the long‐term costs associated with early‐starting conduct problems, which is important information that can be used by policymakers to support research and programs investing in a strong start for children.

Ten recommendations for reducing the long‐term costs of conduct problems: A commentary on the economic analysis of Goulter et al. (2023)

“…As outlined, these potentially span research through to training and education, public health strategies, implementation science and service innovation. The recommendations made here are just some that I believe to be compatible with the conclusions of Goulter et al (2023) and other emerging evidence of such costs.…”

“…Havighurst et al, 2022;Hawes, Gardner et al, 2023). The findings of Goulter et al (2023) have the potential to shift this by putting early conduct problems into terms that are difficult to ignore.…”

“…access publishing facilitated by The University of Sydney, as part of the Wiley -The University of Sydney agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. :10.1111/jcpp.13906Commentary onGoulter et al (2023) …”

“…This contribution is all the more noteworthy for the scientific rigour and innovation involved, including the application of a developmental perspective that has often been lacking in previous economic analyses of crime and antisocial behaviour. Of primary interest to Goulter et al (2023) was the early-starting subgroup of individuals known to follow the most chronic trajectories of antisocial behaviour, and separate costs were calculated for two distinct periods relevant to the emergence of criminal offending: adolescence and adulthood. In this sophisticated study, two world-class longitudinal data sets (Fast Track; Child Development Project) were harmonised and linked to administrative court information and national crime databases.…”

“…It is also likely that the ultimate goal of reducing the long-term costs of early conduct problems will only be achieved through the coordinated efforts of many stakeholders. Inspired by Goulter et al (2023), I offer the following recommendations for investment that in my view may further support progress towards this goal.…”