Purpose
We compared the performance of fracture risk assessment tools in older men, accounting for competing risks including mortality.
Methods
A comparative ROC curve analysis assessed the ability of the QFracture, FRAX® and Garvan fracture risk tools, and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) T-score with or without age to identify incident fracture in community-dwelling men aged 65 years or older (N=4994) without hip or clinical vertebral fracture or antifracture treatment at baseline.
Results
Among risk tools calculated with BMD, the discriminative ability to identify men with incident hip fracture was similar for FRAX (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.73, 0.81), the Garvan tool (AUC 0.78, 95% CI 0.74, 0.82), age plus femoral neck BMD T-score (AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.75, 0.83) and femoral neck BMD T-score alone (AUC 0.76, 95% CI 0.72, 0.81). Among risk tools calculated without BMD, the discriminative ability to identify hip fracture was similar for QFracture (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73), FRAX (AUC 0.70, 95% CI 0.66, 0.73) and the Garvan tool (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.67, 0.74). Correlated ROC curve analyses revealed better diagnostic accuracy for risk scores calculated with BMD compared to QFracture (p < 0.0001). Calibration was good for the internally generated BMD T-score predictor with or without age and poor for the externally developed risk tools.
Conclusion
In untreated older men without fragility fractures at baseline, an age plus femoral neck BMD T-score classifier identified men with incident hip fracture as accurately as more complicated fracture risk scores.