Labor figures for Mexico’s municipalities: Small Area Estimation

Abstract

Labor figures for Mexico’s municipalities were estimated during 2018’s first quarter by using Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques with the incorporation of a spatial component – given there is no recent information source with such a level of geographic disaggregation. To achieve this, combined information from different sources was used to build statistical models in which the Economically Active Population, the Employed Population and the Informal Employed Population were taken as variables object of estimation – this information was taken from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE for its acronym in Spanish). Auxiliary variables were selected from population censuses, administrative records, and population projections. The results were contrasted with those calculated by applying the percentage structures of 2010 Population and Housing Census to the figures provided by ENOE at a federal entity level, and with the data in this survey (obtained by direct estimation for those municipalities which had a sufficient sample with acceptable coefficients of variation). It is observed that the results obtained by Small Area Estimation are plausible and register coefficients of variation below 10 percent.

Perception of insecurity in municipalities in Mexico: A small area estimation approach

“…To avoid this, a common practice in SAE is to implement a sampling variance modeling [17,21]. The considered model is the one proposed by You and Hidiroglou [22] which performs a logarithmic linear regression on the variance of the direct estimator ψ d of the municipalities with more than one PSU and their sample size n d , (9) where d ∼ N (0, Ψ 2 0 ), η 0 , η 1 are the ordinary least squares coefficients, and m is the number of municipalities that have a sample. Then, an estimator of ψ d is given by…”

“…An approach to address these conditions are the Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques, they have proven to be an important tool in the production of official statistics [4] on several social issues. This is reflected in the range of applications that can be found on poverty, labor, health and more [5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. The use of SAE techniques has increased in public security issues as these can provide essential official information on the effects and crime perceptions, Buil-Gil, Medina and Shlomo in [12] analyze the dark figure at local and neighborhood levels in England and Wales; Buelens and Benschop in [13] estimate violent crime incidence at regional level in Netherlands; D'Alò, Di Consiglio and Corazziari estimate violence rate against women at regional level in Italy in [14]; Fay, Planty and Diallo in [15] estimate rates of different crimes in US states; among others.…”