Labor Market Trends and Outcomes: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?

Abstract

This article describes 40 years of trends in wages and labor force participation for the “working class”—workers with a high school education or less—compared to workers with a college degree or more. We compare cyclical peaks over the entire period 1979 to 2019, with particular focus on the Great Recession (2007–2010) and recovery (2010–2019). We also present results by gender and race. We find real wage growth for all workers in the recovery from the Great Recession, but not enough to change the long-term trends of growing inequality and stagnant wages for the less educated. We also find that labor force participation continued to decline for the less educated, even during the recovery. Gaps between whites and Blacks grew, while Hispanics and Asians made more progress than Blacks. We consider various explanations for these findings and show that the early effects of the 2020 to 2021 pandemic recession hurt less-educated workers and those of color more than anyone else.

Should the earned income tax credit rise for childless adults?

“…But few benefits now go to low-income childless adults and non-custodial parents, especially men, whose earnings and labor force participation rates have declined substantially in the last few decades-in fact, more than for any other demographic group, as shown in Figure 1. Source: Groshen and Holzer (2021).…”

Career Decision Self-Efficacy Mediates Social Support and Career Adaptability and Stage Differences

“…With the globalization of labor markets, diffusion of vast amounts of technological knowledge, and restructuring of multinational corporations, there is a growing awareness of the importance of preparing adolescents for their prospective careers (Groshen & Holzer, 2021; Santilli et al, 2019). Therefore, career adaptability which is a core element of career preparation and development for adolescents has received widespread attention (Chen et al, 2020; Johnston, 2018).…”