Background: With a global target set for zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 and some regional programmes close to eliminating canine rabies, there is an urgent need for enhanced surveillance strategies suitable for declaring freedom from disease and elimination of transmission with known confidence. Methods: Using exhaustive contact tracing across settings in Tanzania we generated detailed data on rabies incidence, rabid dog biting behaviour and healthseeking behaviour of bite victims. Using these data we compared case detection of sampling-based and enhanced surveillance methodologies and investigated elimination verification procedures. Findings: We demonstrate that patients presenting to clinics with bite injuries are sensitive sentinels for identifying dog rabies cases. Triage of patients based on bite history criteria and investigation of suspicious incidents can confirm >10% of dog rabies cases and is an affordable approach that will enable validation of disease freedom following two years without case detection. Approaches based on sampling the dog population without using bite-injury follow-up were found to be neither sensitive nor cost-effective. Interpretation: The low prevalence of rabies, and short window in which disease can be detected, preclude sampling-based surveillance. Instead, active case finding guided by bite-patient triage is needed as elimination is approached. Our proposed methodology is affordable, practical and supports the goal of eliminating human rabies deaths by improving administration of lifesaving post-exposure prophylaxis for genuinely exposed but untreated contacts. Moreover, joint investigations by public health and veterinary workers will strengthen intersectoral partnerships and capacity for control of emerging zoonoses.
Funding: Wellcome Trustpeer-reviewed) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/096883 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Dec. 31, 2016; 2
Research in ContextEvidence before this study We searched PubMed for studies published in any language up until December 2016 on "rabies" and "surveillance" and "case detection" or "elimination". Almost all studies focused on methods of laboratory diagnosis, with none investigating means of increasing identification of potential case and recovery of samples for subsequent laboratory confirmation. Many studies alluded to underreporting and under detection of rabies, and a much higher burden of disease than confirmed cases suggest. A previous modelling study highlighted the need for improved case detection to validate elimination of transmission and more generally to improve responses to rabies outbreaks. Otherwise there was an absence of scientific recommendations for practical surveillance strategies, which are urgently needed to inform international guidelines for rabies control and elimination programmes. Added value of this study In this study we used detailed and compr...