In this study, we present a numerical investigation of the direct coupling between the deterministic GeoStudio package (Seepage/W and Slope/W software) and the StRAnD reliability package for normal operating conditions of an existing old earth dam over time. Direct coupling avoids errors associated to point estimate methods and to using response surface surrogates. One relevant feature of the study is the use of realistic pore water pressures for each equilibrium analysis, accomplished by considering a long-term steady-state analysis as an initial condition, followed by four years of equilibrium analysis, before each transient seepage analysis. All reliability analysis were performed using the first-order reliability method. The most important random parameters found in sensitivity analyses are four dam body parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity, ks; specific weight, γ; effective cohesion, c′; and friction angle, ϕ′) and two filter parameters (ks and ϕ′). A range of values of the relationship between the reliability index (β) and the factor of safety (FS) was found for all probabilistic and deterministic results. Finally, a large difference in terms of critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces is identified for the same time of analysis.
Article highlights
Realistic pore water pressures used in dam equilibrium analysis, by considering random seepage analysis in previous 5 to 30 days.
Direct coupling of deterministic and reliability softwares avoids errors associated to point estimate and response surface surrogate methods.
Existing old earth dam studied in Normal Operating Condition.
For same analysis time, large differences are observed between critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces.