In this paper, we developed a mechanistic mathematical model. It implies the engineering problem of pothole development on roadways. The issue involves internal erosion, a decline of subsurface materials, voids creation, depression, materials damage, and potholes’ appearance on the road’s surface. Our study aims to predict why, how, and when pothole develops from the loss of roadway subsurface materials. We reviewed many sources as our first method. It involved using and adapting the guiding principles for migrating particles upwards. We then changed specific parameters, formulated our model equation, solved it using the separation of variables, and then verified it. Observations from our review show that high traffic load pressure and water must be present on the road for particle migration to occur. They generate excess pore-water pressure that enables the movement of particles upwards. Particle relocation causes voids and dislocation of materials. Results show that an increase in time, cracks, soil erosion coefficient, and a decrease in the roadway’s height led to a rise in the number of materials lost from the pavement. Our study is relevant because it will better inform road managers and modelers on potholes, and they can-do preventive measures to avert total road failure.