Labour demand in the time of post-COVID-19

Krumel, Thomas P; Goodrich, Corey; Fiala, Nathan

doi:10.1080/13504851.2021.1985067

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Without considering the business cycle, an increase in minimum wages could have adverse effects on workers, especially teen and female workers. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, firms compete fiercely for new employees (Krumel et al, 2021). Concurrently, firms have lost some bargaining power in the current labour market.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession

Hean

Deng

2022

IJM

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PurposeThis paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the discontinuity design.FindingsThe authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms’ market power during the business cycle.Originality/valueThe authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession

Hean

Deng

2022

IJM

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“…Forsythe et al (2020) used Burning Glass data on new job postings to show that labour demand contracted sharply between February and April 2020 with the onset of the pandemic. Krumel et al (2021) demonstrated that Forsythe et al ( 2020) overstated the contraction in labour demand by focusing on changes in new job postings and that changes in the total stock of postings indicated a smaller (but still significant) contraction in labour demand. This study highlighted the importance of accounting for changes in the stock of unfilled postings, not just the flow of new postings, in measuring total labour demand over time, and showed that increases in the time required to fill vacancies (rather than increases in new postings) were the main driver of the increase in total postings in the US between mid-2020 and May 2021.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ob vacancies are an important measure of the tightness of labour markets (Blanchard et al, 1989;Elsby et al, 2015;U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022). In the short run, changes in the number of job vacancies reflect changes in firms' demand for workers, with higher (lower) demand leading to increases (decreases) in the number of vacancies (Krumel et al, 2021;U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022). In the long run, changes in the number of job vacancies can also reflect changes in labour supply, with increases (decreases) in labour supply leading to decreases (increases) in the number of unfilled vacancies (Duval et al, 2022;Holt & Martin, 1966;Krumel et al, 2021).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Online job postings provide an alternative measure of job vacancies. Since online job postings are high frequency, they can provide an earlier signal of changes in vacancies than official vacancies statistics (Office for National Statistics, 2021; Krumel et al, 2021). The drawback is that online job postings provide an unrepresentative sample of the population of job vacancies.…”

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confidence: 99%

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An algorithm for predicting job vacancies using online job postings in Australia

Evans

Mason

Chen

et al. 2023

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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Timely and accurate statistics on the labour market enable policymakers to rapidly respond to changing economic conditions. Estimates of job vacancies by national statistical agencies are highly accurate but reported infrequently and with time lags. In contrast, online job postings provide a high-frequency indicator of vacancies with less accuracy. In this study we develop a robust signal averaging algorithm to measure job vacancies using online job postings data. We apply the algorithm using data on Australian job postings and show that it accurately predicts changes in job vacancies over a 4.5-year period. We also show that the algorithm is significantly more accurate than using raw counts of job postings to predict vacancies. The algorithm therefore offers a promising approach to the timely and reliable measurement of changes in vacancies.

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“…COVID-19 also disrupted the labour market (Ancillo et al, 2021;Belás et al, 2021). Although the labour demand rebounded in the short term, Krumel et al (2021) showed that there is a labour shortage because of the decreases in salaries and in the quality of required skills. Exploring the impact of COVID-19 cases and deaths on five EU countries, Su et al (2021) concluded that the pandemic has caused unemployment in three of the selected countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19

Přívara

2022

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Research background: The world has been fighting the new pandemic caused by COVID-19 since March 2020. The subsequent restrictions on economic activity resulted in a supply shock, accompanied by a supply chain disruption, job layoffs, reduced work time and wages and decreased disposable incomes and taxes, which led to a demand shock. However, whether a close link exists between the number of confirmed cases, deaths and economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic remains uncertain. Purpose of the article: The current study aims to analyse the impact of the number of infections and deaths on economic growth and labour market indicators in the member states of the European Union. Methods: To achieve the main research goal, we conduct a panel data analysis on the quarterly data of 2020. Specifically, we developed three random-effects panel data econometric models to estimate the significance of infection and mortality rates for economic growth as well as employment and unemployment rates. Findings & value added: This study contributes to the existing literature by analysing the link between the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 and selecting macro-economic indicators within the European Union. The results show that the infection rate is not a significant variable for economic growth and labour market indicators. However, an increase in the number of confirmed deaths has a significantly negative impact on the economy. Moreover, an increase in the mortality rate has a worse impact on the labour market than on economic growth in general. These results can serve as a theoretical basis for future research on the interconnections between pandemics and macro-economic indicators. The findings can also contribute to developing efficient policy instruments for mitigating the negative impact of pandemics in the future, thereby ensuring the cooperation of fiscal, monetary and health policy authorities.

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Labour demand in the time of post-COVID-19

Cited by 11 publications

References 9 publications

The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession

The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession

An algorithm for predicting job vacancies using online job postings in Australia

Economic growth and labour market in the European Union: lessons from COVID-19

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