Background & Aims
Management strategies for patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have changed, along with liver allocation policies based on model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. We investigated etiologic-specific trends in liver transplantation in the United States (US) during different time periods.
Methods
We performed a retrospective study, using the United Network for Organ Sharing/Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registry data to identify all adult patients registered for liver transplantation in the US from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2015. For subjects listed with multiple diagnoses, HCC was considered the primary listing diagnosis. To determine whether availability of direct-acting antiviral agents, which began in 2011, affected pre-transplant (death or dropout) and post-transplant outcomes for patients with HCV infection, we compared data from the time periods of 2004–2010 and 2011–2014. We used competing risk analysis to compare differences in endpoints between these periods. Differences between periods in pre- and post-transplantation outcomes were estimated using Kaplan-Maier analysis and compared using the log-rank test. Associations between year of listing and pre-liver transplant outcome, and year of liver transplant and survival following transplant, were examined using the log-rank test. Proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the reliability of the time period effect with potential confounders.
Results
Among 109,018 registrants, 18.5% were registered for liver transplantation due to HCC. In 2015, HCC was the leading diagnosis among registrants (23.9% of registrations) and recipients (27.2% of recipients). Between 2004 and 2015, the ratio of registrants with vs without HCC increased 5.6-fold for patients with HCV infection, 1.9-fold for patients with HBV infection, 2.7-fold for patients with alcohol abuse, and 10.2-fold for patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. After adjusting for covariates, we associated the period of 2011–2014 with a decreased probability that HCC registrants would undergo liver transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62; P<.0001). The period of 2011–2014 was also associated with decreased probability of dropout due to deterioration or death from HCV-induced (HR, 0.90; P=.0003), HBV-induced (HR, 0.71; P=.002), or alcohol-induced (HR, 0.90; P=.01) liver disease, and an increased probability of delisting due to clinical improvement in patients with HCV infection (HR, 3.4; P<.0001), HBV infection (HR, 2.3; P=.004, or alcohol abuse (HR, 2.2; P<0.0001). The period of 2011–2014 was associated with a decreased risk of graft loss or death, with the largest effect seen in HCV-infected recipients (HR, 0.76; P<.0001).
Conclusion
HCC was the leading indication for liver transplantation in the US in 2015. Despite this, the probability of liver transplantation decreased the most in registrants with HCC. Pre- and post-transplantation outcomes have improved, particularly in patients with HCV...