Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in southern Taiwan: Insights from a statistical analysis

Chen, Szu-Chieh; Liao, Chung‐Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chou, Hsiao-Han; You, Shu-Han; Cheng, Yi-Hsien

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.05.021

Cited by 129 publications

(105 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…A few studies [37,38] also concluded that the temperature in a 3-month lag has negative association with the DF occurrence; and a study in Taiwan [39] also reported negative result. In contrast, Yu et al [38] showed that minimum temperature in a 8-12-week lag is positively associated with DF cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, an inconsistent results on the association between immature mosquito indices and DENV transmission has been repeatedly reported. Some study had found that higher BI, HI and CI are positively correlated with DF occurrence [31]; while others [32][33][34][35] found no significant or even negative [36,37] association. Given that mosquito density is temporally dynamic and spatially non-stationary [36], the following reasons may cause the inconsistency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Re-Model the Relation of Vector Indices, Meteorological Factors and Dengue Fever

Tseng¹,

Chang²

2016

J Trop Dis

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-Model the Relation of Vector Indices, Meteorological Factors and Dengue Fever

Tseng¹,

Chang²

2016

J Trop Dis

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“…Numerous mathematical models have been designed and used to assess the impact of climate change and seasonality on the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria (Agusto et al 2015;Ebi et al 2005;Jaenisch and Patz 2002;Mordecai et al 2012;Paaijmans et al 2009), dengue (Chen et al 2010;Hales et al 2002;Pham et al 2011;Wu et al 2009;Yang et al 2011), chikungunya (Fischer et al 2013;Meason and Paterson 2014) and WNv (Abdelrazec et al 2015;Wang et al 2011). For instance, such models allow for the determination of parameters, or variables, that influences the life-cycle of the mosquitoes (Ahumada et al 2004;Cailly et al 2012;Tran et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

Abdelrazec

Gumel

2016

J. Math. Biol.

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A new stage-structured model for the population dynamics of the mosquito (a major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases), which takes the form of a deterministic system of non-autonomous nonlinear differential equations, is designed and used to study the effect of variability in temperature and rainfall on mosquito abundance in a community. Two functional forms of eggs oviposition rate, namely the Verhulst-Pearl logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin functions, are used. Rigorous analysis of the autonomous version of the model shows that, for any of the oviposition functions considered, the trivial equilibrium of the model is locally-and globally-asymptotically stable if a certain vectorial threshold quantity is less than unity. Conditions for the existence and global asymptotic stability of the non-trivial equilibrium solutions of the model are also derived. The model is shown to undergo a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions (and that increased density-dependent competition in larval mortality reduces the likelihood of such bifurcation). The analyses reveal that the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function sustains more oscillations than the Verhulst-Pearl logistic function (hence, it is more suited, from ecological viewpoint, for modeling the egg oviposition process). The non-autonomous model is shown to have a globally-asymptotically stable trivial periodic solution, for each of the oviposition functions, when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, this model, in the absence of density-dependent mortality rate for larvae, has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable periodic solution under certain conditions. Numerical simulations of the non-autonomous model, using mosquito surveillance and weather data from the Peel region of Ontario, Canada, show a peak mosquito abundance for temperature and rainfall values in the range [20−25] • C and [15-35] mm, respectively. These ranges are recorded in the Peel region between July and August (hence, this study suggests that anti-mosquito control effects should be intensified during this period).

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“…The time lag varies from zero to 4 months. Chen et al (2010) indicated that temperature play more significant role than rainfall in Taipei and Kaohsiung with time-lag 1-4 months. Gharbi et al (2011) calculated that the dengue incidence in French West indies was correlated with temperature and humidity with time lag 5-11 weeks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The correlation of climate factors on dengue transmission in urban area: Bangkok and Singapore cases

Polwiang

2016

Preprint

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The objective of this study is to find the correlation between climate factors and dengue incidence rate in Bangkok and Singapore during 2009-2015. Spearman's rank correlation tests with time-lag are performed to investigate the overall correlation between dengue incidence rates and climate factors , minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, DTR, and rainfall. A Linear and Poisson regression analysis was performed. Spearman's rank correlation tests show that in Bangkok monthly rainfall (r=0.451, p<0.001), the number of rainy days (r=0.411, p<0.001) are positive correlation with 2 month lag time. DTR (r=-0.335, p<0.001) is negative correlation with 2 month lag time. Maximum (r=0.256, p<0.001), mean (r=0.304, p<0.001) and minimum (r=0.323, p<0.001) temperature are positive correlation with 4 month lag time. In Singapore, only minimum temperature (r=-0.299, p<0.001) with 1 month lag time is negative correlation and DTR (r=-0.289, p<0.001) with zero month lag time is positive correlation. The rest has no statically significance (p>0.05). This study concluded, climate factors play moderate role in dengue incidence in Bangkok. There is no statistical significance between rainfall and dengue incidence rate and temperature play a marginal role in Singapore.

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Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in southern Taiwan: Insights from a statistical analysis

Cited by 129 publications

References 32 publications

Re-Model the Relation of Vector Indices, Meteorological Factors and Dengue Fever

Re-Model the Relation of Vector Indices, Meteorological Factors and Dengue Fever

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics

The correlation of climate factors on dengue transmission in urban area: Bangkok and Singapore cases

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