Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming

Abstract

Millions of lakes from around the world freeze during winter. These frozen surfaces provide essential ecosystem services that are vital to many northern communities. However, the availability of safe lake ice that is oftentimes required to support these services is under threat from climate change. Here we use a 100‐member ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate changes in the presence of safe lake ice for different recreation and provisioning activities across the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections suggest that the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten, on average, by 13, 17, and 24 days within a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warmer world (relative to 1900–1929), respectively. The projected change in the duration of safe ice will be greater in higher latitudes, but with the most densely populated lower‐latitude regions experiencing the greatest percent change. The use of lake ice to support critical transportation infrastructure will also be influenced by future warming through the loss of thicker ice this century. However, our projections suggest that the magnitude of change in the duration of safe ice will differ depending on the ice thickness requirements. For transportation that requires the thickest ice cover, the number of days with safe ice will decline by 90%, 95%, and 99% with 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming, respectively. We highlight the need for the development and implementation of adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of critical wintertime transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere.

Lake Water Temperature Modeling in an Era of Climate Change: Data Sources, Models, and Future Prospects

“…With large ensemble simulations (i.e., a set of projections starting from different initial conditions but produced with a single model and identical external forcing), the human‐induced and naturally varying variations in lake temperature can be quantified (Deser et al., 2020). Most notably, using large ensembles, one can investigate the anthropogenic and natural variability components of lake temperature changes, enabling (a) identification of the anthropogenic signal itself and (b) a timescale over which such changes will emerge over natural variability (Woolway et al., 2022). Recent studies have highlighted the benefit of using large ensemble simulations to investigate lake ice responses to natural and anthropogenic drivers (L. Huang et al., 2022), but future studies could also consider evaluating lake temperature responses to climate change within a large ensemble.…”

Lake Ice From Historical Records to Contemporary Science

“…Lake ice is truly the miner's canary of global climate change. Historically, ice records have been collected from lakes primarily found in northern temperate regions where ice has been used by northern communities for a variety of purposes, including recreation, transportation, and refrigeration (Arp et al, 2019;Knoll et al, 2019;Leppäranta, 2015;Magnuson & Lathrop, 2014;Mullan et al, 2021;Woolway et al, 2022). Many of these ice records have been established for over a century, long before the advent of meteorological stations, illustrating their importance to communities, but also serving as long-term direct human observation of climate change (Magnuson et al, 2000;Sharma et al, 2016Sharma et al, , 2022.…”

“…For example, the largest ice festival, the Harbin International Ice and Snow festival in China, attracts 18 million visitors and generates $4.4 billion in revenue annually (Hindustani Times, 2018). Furthermore, ice roads and trails provide essential transportation routes in winter for remote northern communities to access food, fuel, medical supplies, and education (Hori et al., 2017; Magnuson & Lathrop, 2014; Mullan et al., 2021; Woolway et al., 2022).…”

Global Lake Health in the Anthropocene: Societal Implications and Treatment Strategies

“…Unstable ice conditions can cause substantial economic losses due to delays in winter ice road construction (Hori et al., 2017), as well as cancellations of ice fishing and ice‐skating tournaments (Knoll et al., 2019). Under projected warmer climatic conditions, ice is forecasted to be too thin to be safe for winter transportation without engineering adaptation solutions (Woolway et al., 2022). Changes in ice cover and quality also entail direct threats to human health by increasing the occurrence of drownings, especially of small children (Sharma et al., 2020).…”