Lame‐Duck Foreign Policy

Potter, Philip

doi:10.1111/psq.12322

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…But democracies and dictatorships differ on various dimensions-many hard to measure and control-that could produce differences in foreign policy even if the public played no role. Scholars have also compared types of democracies (Baum and Potter 2015) and contrasted term-limited leaders with leaders facing re-election (e.g., Potter 2016 Third, a few authors have used case studies or personal interviews to infer decision makers' motivations. Unfortunately, case studies have produced mixed evidence about the extent to which leaders respond to public opinion.…”

Section: How Might Public Opinion Affect Decisions About Military Force?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies

Tomz¹,

Weeks²,

Yarhi-Milo³

2019

Int Org

167

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Many theories of international relations assume that public opinion exerts a powerful effect on foreign policy in democracies. Previous research, based on observational data, has reached conflicting conclusions about this foundational assumption. We use experiments to examine two mechanisms—responsiveness and selection—through which opinion could shape decisions about the use of military force. We tested responsiveness by asking members of the Israeli parliament to consider a crisis in which we randomized information about public opinion. Parliamentarians were more willing to use military force when the public was in favor and believed that contravening public opinion would entail heavy political costs. We tested selection by asking citizens in Israel and the US to evaluate parties/candidates, which varied randomly on many dimensions. In both countries, security policy proved as electorally significant as economic and religious policy, and far more consequential than nonpolicy considerations such as gender, race, and experience. Overall, our experiments in two important democracies imply that citizens can affect policy by incentivizing incumbents and shaping who gets elected.

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Section: How Might Public Opinion Affect Decisions About Military Force?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies

Tomz¹,

Weeks²,

Yarhi-Milo³

2019

Int Org

167

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…What the existing literature is less helpful for, however, is shedding light on how a successful candidate reconciles the political need to fulfil such a pledge with the strategic requirements of handling a conflict overseas once in office. To be sure, excellent research exists examining the influence of electoral constraints on the initial decision to enter into a conflict (Gaubatz, 1999), and why democratic leaders not facing re-election tend to be more active and indeed belligerent in matters of foreign policy (Conconi et al, 2014; Potter, 2016; Zeigler et al, 2014). Yet the study of decisions to reduce the level of military commitment to an inherited conflict remains a significant gap in the study of elections and war.…”

Section: Elections Campaign Promises and Warmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That Nixon’s strategic preference, at least until late 1970, was to escalate the war in order to achieve victory on the battlefield is made plainly apparent by the president’s own words to Kissinger less than 2 weeks after assuming office. ‘It seems vitally important to me at this time’, wrote Nixon 17 ‘that we increase as much as we possibly can the military pressure on the enemy in South Vietnam’. ‘I call it the Madman Theory, Bob’, he later confided to his Chief of Staff, explaining:I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.…”

Section: Richard Nixon and The Pursuit Of ‘Peace With Honour’mentioning

confidence: 99%

Bringing the boys back home: Campaign promises and US decision-making in Iraq and Vietnam

Payne

2020

Politics

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This article argues that electoral politics acts as an important constraint on presidential decision-making in war. Going beyond the existing literature’s focus on cases of conflict initiation, it outlines how electoral pressures push and pull presidents away from courses of action which may otherwise be deemed strategically optimal. Importantly, however, these electoral constraints will not just apply on the immediate eve of an election but will vary in strength across the electoral calendar. Together, this conceptual framework helps explain why presidential fulfilment of rhetorical pledges made on the previous campaign trail may be belated and often inconsistent. To probe the plausibility of these arguments, case studies of the closing stages of the wars in Vietnam and Iraq are outlined, drawing on archival and elite interview material. These episodes demonstrate that electoral accountability can be a powerful factor affecting wartime decision-making, but its effect is non-linear, and not easily observed through a narrow focus on particular timeframes.

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“…Anayasa değişikliği her yıl 6 Şubat'ta "Topal Ördek Günü" olarak kutlanmaktadır. Her ne kadar topal ördek dönemindeki başkanların iç politikaya dönük ve çok bir şey yapmamaları beklense de, bazı başkanlar bu beklentileri aşarak kişisel siyasi miraslarını güçlendirmek için çaba harcadıkları ileri sürülmektedir (Potter, 2016;Johnson, 1986:50-65).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Türkiye’de 24 Haziran 2018 Genel Seçimleri Sonrasında “Topal Ördek” Tartışması: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Hükümet Sisteminde Olası Riskler ve Karşı Çözümler

Akıncı¹

2020

TurkishStudies

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The government system discussions began in Turkey after 1970's has ended with the adoption of the presidential government system with referendum held on April 16, 2017. The presidential government rising on the foundations of the presidential system in full struggle with the various guardianship focuses and ending the administrative and political crisis of Parlimenter system specific to Turkey aims to eliminate obstacles that leads to a democracy deficit including the election of the executive and legislative powers in particular.While some regulations integrated into the new system immediately were implemented with the referendum, the full implementation of the system was possible with the June 24 general elections. However, immediately after the June 24 elections, the Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu claimed that the president, who was the head of the executive power, was facing the "lame duck" case of the United States (US) type presidential system. Such a situation emerges when the successor-predecessor presidents in the United States have a different political majority in terms of executive power and the period spent during the change of duties. The concept of lame duck, which is at the center of the debate, was defined as someone who could not pay off the debt in England in the 18th century, and in time, it was used in the sense of a manager with limited authority. Therefore, this study will analyze how the political picture formed after the first general elections of the new government system overlaps with the 'lame duck' case expressed by the opposition parties. In addition, it will be emphasized that whether the discussions stem from political reasons or the structural problems of the new government system and what counter-solutions about the topic are brought in the new system.

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Lame‐Duck Foreign Policy

Cited by 17 publications

References 42 publications

Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies

Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies

Bringing the boys back home: Campaign promises and US decision-making in Iraq and Vietnam

Türkiye’de 24 Haziran 2018 Genel Seçimleri Sonrasında “Topal Ördek” Tartışması: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Hükümet Sisteminde Olası Riskler ve Karşı Çözümler

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