Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of land in long-run climate stabilization mitigation scenarios. The details of land modeling for common stabilization policy scenarios are, for the first time, presented, contrasted, and assessed. While we find significant differences in approaches across modeling platforms, all the approaches conclude that land based mitigationagriculture, forestry, and biomass liquid and solid energy substitutescould be a steady and significant part of the cost-effective portfolio of mitigation strategies; thereby, reducing stabilization cost and increasing flexibility for achieving more aggressive climate targets. However, large fossil fuel emissions reductions are still required, and there are substantial uncertainties, with little agreement about abatement magnitudes. Across the scenarios, land mitigation options contribute approximately 100 to 340 GtC equivalent abatement over the century, 15 to 40% of the total required for stabilization, with bioenergy providing up to 15% of total primary energy. Long-run land climate modeling is rapidly evolving with critical challenges to address. In characterizing current capability, this paper hopes to stimulate future research and the next generation of land modeling and provide a point of comparison for energy and climate policies considering bio-energy, reduced deforestation and degradation, and cost containment.

Integrating Global Climate Change Mitigation Goals with Other Sustainability Objectives: A Synthesis

“…The latter could, for instance, lead to an incentive not to increase (or even decrease) the natural area. At the moment, most integrated models only capture some of these relationships, and the net impact is difficult to assess given the uncertainties involved (24,27,29,67,(102)(103)(104)(105). 9 Most studies agree that overall it is important to account for the adverse side effects of large-scale use of afforestation and bioenergy, particularly because of food security and land tenure concerns (see 26, 103, 109-111 for a more in-depth discussion and assessment of many other SD implications).…”

Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy

“…Combined with carbon capture and storage, it can actually extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Obersteiner et al 2001). As policy makers consider stringent targets for greenhouse gas emissions, integrated assessment models are increasingly relying on biomass energy as a critical energy source Krey and Riahi 2009;Edenhofer et al 2010;van Vuuren et al 2011;Rose et al 2012). …”

From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

“…Part of the uncertainty in future land use trajectories is due to inherent unpredictability of human actions, and part to the high diversity of potential climate mitigation and adaptation scenarios. Several energy and land strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate change (Rose et al, 2012;, and while these have similar overall goals, some strategies will likely compete for land and other resources if implemented simultaneously. For example, afforestation and bioenergy production both aim to reduce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but both activities require land area, and both strategies would impact crop production and markets through effects on crop area (Reilly et al, 2012).…”