Land use and land cover dynamics influence the thermal stress spread and energy demands

Abstract

This study examined the interaction between land use land cover (LULC) dynamics and thermal stress distribution using the universal thermal comfort index (UTCI) and different LULC classifications under two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP 370 and 585) climate and land use scenarios for the historical (1959–2014) and future period (2045–2100). The moderate to strong cold stress in the annual and winter climatology in the midlatitudes was replaced by no thermal stress in the summer, while the summertime ranged from moderate to strong heat stress. A negative correlation was observed between thermal stress and southern hemispheric primary forests. Perennial croplands had the most dynamic active change intensities during the historical period. Primary nonforest and secondary forests actively influenced global thermal stress. Areas in the tropics recording moderate heat stress coincided with secondary nonforest, pastureland and annual cropland expansions. The conversion of forest to range land and croplands and the subsequent negative forest trends increased the severity of thermal stress. The future projection showed more intense thermal stress; however, the SSP 585 signals were more potent. As a result, cooling demands will rise, and heating demands will decline; yet, improved thermal comfort necessitates a higher cooling capacity, especially in the summer. Thermal stress may make it difficult for many cooling systems to meet people’s energy demands. These could be a driving factor in shaping better land use policies, improved energy demand preparedness and elucidating the potentially severe impacts of thermal stress.