Abstract:The land use and land cover (LUC) of the Zêzere watershed (Portugal) have undergone major changes in recent decades, with the increase of artificial surfaces. This trend is quantified in some studies, but the probability of the increase of this type of LUC, nor the places where the next transitions or land use/cover changes (LUCC) for artificial surfaces will have high probability of occurrence has not yet been assessed. This research presents an evaluation of these two aspects, by means of bivariate statistical models (fuzzy logic and information value) and environmental data. The artificialization probability by sectors within the same watershed is also evaluated, to further understand which areas will require greater attention, taking into account the environmental conditions favorable to the occurrence of this process and bearing in mind the conditions under which this process took place in the past. The results obtained using these models were assessed independently, through curves of success, noting that the modeling through the fuzzy gamma presents slightly better efficiency in determining the probability of artificialization surfaces in the study area. The area with the highest probability of artificialization is mostly located in the SW of this watershed, but high probabilities are also present in the upstream sector, being those areas that require further preventive measures once they have influence on the water quality and quantity in the main reservoirs of this watershed.Keywords: LUC; LUCC; artificial surfaces; fuzzy logic; information value; spatial analysis; water quality
The Artificialization of Surfaces and Their AssessmentUrban growth has been evaluated in different territories around the world, considering the spatiotemporal aspect, as well as the factors that induced it [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Other studies have emerged in the context of land use and land cover changes (LUCC) to assess where the soils are being converted into artificial surfaces [7][8][9][10][11], especially when there is loss of soils essential for the development of agricultural practices, or the conversion of forest areas. These processes have multiple socio-economic and environmental impacts [12][13][14][15][16]. In this sense, the determination of driving forces (socio-economic, environmental, or other) that are the cause of LUCC is fundamental to understand the factors that induced them and for the creation of measures aimed at the sustainability of land use [15,17]. Some studies demonstrating the links between driving forces and LUCC have appeared recently, also quantifying how much each factor represents to the observed changes [13,[18][19][20][21][22].