Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities

Abstract

Land use change models are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use models can support land use planning and policy. Numerous land use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future land use change modelling research. This discussion is based on six concepts important to land use modelling: (1) Level of analysis; (2) Cross-scale dynamics; (3) Driving forces; (4) Spatial interaction and neighbourhood effects; (5) Temporal dynamics; and (6) Level of integration. For each of these concepts an overview is given of the variety of methods used to implement these concepts in operational models. It is concluded that a lot of progress has been made in building land use change models. However, in order to incorporate more aspects important to land use modelling it is needed to develop a new generation of land use models that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the land use system, implement new techniques to quantify neighbourhood effects, explicitly deal with temporal dynamics and achieve a higher level of integration between disciplinary approaches and between models studying urban and rural land use changes. If these requirements are fulfilled models will better support the analysis of land use dynamics and land use policy formulation.

Evolution of land use-change modeling: routes of different schools of knowledge

“…Yet, Fig. 2 Top-down allocation procedure (adapted from Verburg et al 2004) Landscape Ecol Eng there is no escaping the reality in qualitative research that the researcher is a tool that screens data through his/her own respective paradigms. Those that conduct research cannot be objective and their research and intuition will be laden with values.…”

“…1 illustrates how an understanding of land use change has shifted from a simplistic (positivism) to a more realistic and complex (pragmatism) paradigm over time. Such new models have tried to better address land use systems and their multi-scale characteristics, and to integrate disciplinary approaches at a higher level (Verburg et al 2004;Courtney et al 2015). The evolution of research questions, methods, and the scientific paradigm is reflected in this change (Lambin et al 2003).…”

“…When reviewing LUCMs, there are many criteria that can be identified and used to classify different models (Overmars et al 2007). According to Verburg et al (2004), there are a significant number of models that outline land use within the context of different subject areas that have been developed by researchers from a variety of disciplines. They emphasize that the most important tasks for future research is to combine the strengths of all existing ideas, methods and tactics rather than expounding upon the method that belongs to the modeler's own field of study.…”

“…They can better incorporate new approaches for the measurement of neighborhood impacts, determination of accurate responses to temporal changes, and can more fully integrate various disciplinary methodologies, as well as create more combinations of LUCMs for rural and urban areas. Through such advances in the development of LUCMs, researchers are better able to evaluate land use changes and develop effective land use policies (Verburg et al 2004).…”

“…Accordingly, an understanding of the philosophical routes leading to a specific model could be an effective guide when predicting the future orientations/generations of a LUCM (determining which elements should be included or excluded in the next LUCM). This should help us obtain a better understanding of complex land use systems and allow us to more efficiently interact with those that determine land use change (Verburg et al 2004). Otherwise, according to Briassoulis (2000), inappropriate and inadequate awareness of the influence of schools of knowledge claims regarding land use change may mislead policy creation and create more challenges which will need to be dealt with.…”