Land use induced land cover changes and future scenarios in extent of Miombo woodland and Dambo ecosystems in the Copperbelt province of Zambia

Abstract

The pattern of Miombo woodland conversion to other land uses and the attendant impacts on vital Miombo ecosystems such as dambos is not well understood. Using the Copperbelt province of Zambia as a case study, we assessed the spatio‐temporal patterns of Miombo woodland and dambo conversion to other land uses between 1984 and 2016 and predicted the changes to 2050. The effects of land use land cover change (LULCC) on the extent of Miombo woodlands and dambos was determined by intersecting layers of croplands, settlements, plantations, grasslands and barelands on woodland and dambo pixels. Prediction of future LULCC was done using the land change modeller (LCM) in TerrSet. It was observed that in the period between 1984 and 2016, woodlands decreased by 17.9% while dambos increased by 4.9%. The two classes were predicted to lose 26.4% and 2.0%, respectively, by 2050. Conversion to cropland was the highest contributor to woodland loss, accounting for 57.5% of total loss by 2016, and projected to reach 67.6% by 2050. Similarly, establishment of cropland was shown to result into 53.5% (2016) and 58.9% (2050) of loss of dambos. Expansion of croplands caused a decline in woodlands and dambos. Therefore, sustainable agriculture should be adopted.

Fire regime of peatlands in the Angolan Highlands

“…Patches of dense miombo woodlands in the Angolan Highlands remain unburnt for several years as observed in other regions of southern Africa such as Zambia (Malunga et al, 2022 ) and Zimbabwe (Mapanda et al, 2012 ). Burned area increased as the dry season continued; peatland, cultivated land, upland, and valley grasslands generally started burning at the start of the dry season in May and continued into October towards the end of the dry season.…”

Soil and vegetation water content identify the main terrestrial ecosystem changes

“…The Central Africa region does not show a significant change in SM but a clear monotonic decrease in VOD. This can be explained by deforestation, which is plausible given the wildfire and shifting to cultivated areas by smallholders reported in the literature [ 47 , 48 , 65 ]. The observed pattern of deforestation in the Amazon can be further separated into three subclusters.…”

“…Rain patterns do not change significantly in this region during the study period, and the NDVI is not particularly sensitive to changes in vegetation. The estimated deforested area in Central Africa here is 11 000 km 2 in front of the 22 000 km 2 reported in the bibliography [ 48 ]. This decadal underestimation could probably be due to the coarse spatial resolution used here, which cannot detect small changes in local scales yet is enough to identify changes in continental scales [ 69 ].…”

Dynamics of land use land cover change in an East African inland valley wetland

“…The greatest reduction in Tree cover (2000–2010 period) (this study) occurred when water coverage was at the lowest could likely have occasioned deforestation activities in the wetland. LULCCs for fragile ecosystems like wetlands can be heightened by the current global food‐energy demands (Malunga et al, 2022). The consistent decrease in Shrubland over the years of assessment in this study may point to the ever‐increasing wood‐energy demands by the rural communities as natural forests are depleted.…”

“…This is supported by other studies (NEMA, 2006; Odada et al, 2009). Riparian rural communities depend and cut shrubs and trees to sustain domestic energy needs (Dossou‐Yovo et al, 2017; Kindu et al, 2013; Malunga et al, 2022).…”