Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality

Bartholomew, Keith

doi:10.1007/s11116-006-9108-2

Cited by 114 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…U projektu ÖROK-a (n. d.) pak izrađeni su scenariji prostornog razvoja Austrije. Prema Bartholomew (2007), mnoga metropolitanska područja u SAD-u u posljednja dva desetljeća primjenjuju tehnike opisivanja budućnosti svojih zajednica; često jedan od oblika scenarijskog planiranja za kvantitativno vrednovanje nekoliko inačica razvoja, i analizu njihovih učinaka na različite indikatore (od cijene stanovanja do kvalitete vode). Özkaynak (2008) pokazala je na primjeru grada Yalova u Turskoj kako izrada i analiza scenarija mogu pomoći urbanom planiranju i upravljanju manjim do srednje velikim gradovima.…”

Section: Scenario Methods In Spatial Research and Planningunclassified

“…In the frame of ÖROK (n. d.) scenarios of spatial development of Austria were constructed. According to Bartholomew (2007), many metropolitan areas in the United States have engaged in a form of visioning in the last two decades to describe a future for their communities; often as a form of scenario planning to evaluate quantitatively several alternative development patterns and analyse their impacts along different indices (ranging from the affordability of housing to water quality). Using the example of Yalova in Turkey, Özkaynak (2008) showed how scenario building and analysis can contribute to small and medium-sized city planning and governance.…”

Section: Scenario Methods In Spatial Research and Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning

Kaufmann

2016

Hrv. geogr. glas.

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Radi analize oblika scenarija koji su značajni za istraživanje i planiranje prostora te načina na koji se metoda scenarija upotrebljava u tom kontekstu na pojedinim prostornim razinama proveden je opsežan pregled literature vezane uz tipologije i primjere upotrebe metode scenarija. Prema prostornom i vremenskom okviru, svrsi i postupku izrade scenarija te izrađenim scenarijima, pobliže je analizirano jedanaest odabranih scenarijskih studija u europskim državama te devet studija u drugim svjetskim državama, opisanih u akademskim radovima. Na temelju analize tipologija scenarija izdvojeni su: a) eksplorativni, deskriptivni, prognozirajući -normativni, anticipativni, retrognozirajući scenariji, b) kvalitativni -kvantitativni, c) stručni -participativni, d) osnovni -upravljački scenariji i e) ostali tipovi scenarija. Analiza odabranih primjera upotrebe metode scenarija pokazala je posebno: prisutnost scenarija u različitim svjetskim državama i na različitim prostornim razinama, relevantnost u vrednovanju varijanti mogućega budućeg razvoja te postavljanju temelja strategija i specifičnih mjera planiranja i upravljanja, povezanost metode s integralnim pristupom prostornom razvoju, ali i regionalno i lokalno specifičnim temama te ulogu scenarija kao poveznice istraživanja u okviru znanosti o okolišu i prostornog planiranja.Ključne riječi: metoda scenarija, tipovi scenarija, istraživanje prostora, prostorno planiranje With the goal of analysing the forms of scenarios relevant for spatial research and planning, and ways in which the scenario method is contextually used at different spatial levels, a wide encompassing literature review was conducted in relation to typologies and examples of scenario method usage. Given the spatial and temporal frame, the purpose and procedure of scenario construction and resulting scenarios, eleven scenario studies in European countries and nine studies in other countries, described in published academic papers, were selected for closer analysis. On the basis of analysis of scenario typologies, underlying scenarios were recognised: a) explorative, descriptive, forecasting -normative, anticipatory, backcasting; b) qualitative -quantitative; c) expert -participatory; d) baseline -policy; and e) other types of scenarios. The analysis of selected examples of scenario method usage showed especially: the presence of the scenario method in different countries on different spatial levels; relevance in evaluating of alternatives of possible future developments and providing a firm ground for strategies and specific planning and policy measures; connections of the method to the integral approach to spatial development, but also to regionally and locally specific topics; the role of scenarios as links between environmental science research and spatial planning. UvodUobičajeno je da se pojmovi "planiranje", "razmišljanje", "prognoziranje", "analiza" i "učenje" povezuju sa scenarijima (Bradfield i dr., 2005), pojmom koji sam po sebi ima niz značenja. Upotrebljava se u različitim kontekstima: od sadrž...

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Section: Scenario Methods In Spatial Research and Planningunclassified

Section: Scenario Methods In Spatial Research and Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning

Kaufmann

2016

Hrv. geogr. glas.

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“…Still, the impetus to move toward greater integration and coordination on transportation and land use policies has been reflected in metropolitan planning practice in the decades since ISTEA, particularly in the rise of land use-transportation scenario analysis. Research by Bartholomew (2007) and Bartholomew and Ewing (2009 identified more than 100 examples of regional-scale scenario analyses utilizing some measure of land use-transportation policy integration and coordination. The seeming ubiquity of the approach led Ewing to opine in 2007 that the approach had, in the space of a decade and a half, gone from the fringes of planning practice to being a staple (Ewing, 2007).…”

Section: Mpo Roles In Transportation-land Use Integrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Metropolitan Centers: Evaluating Local Implementation of Regional Plans and Policies

Margerum¹,

Bartholomew²,

Lewis³

et al. 2017

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Type of Report and Period Covered Sponsoring Agency Code Supplementary Notes AbstractThe Denver and Salt Lake City Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) have embarked upon regional visioning strategies that promote development around higher density, mixed use centers with current or future access to transit. This study examines the programs and policies in the Salt Lake City and Denver regions to examine regional vision influence on local planning and the opportunities and constraints facing centers. The research team analyzed local plans over the past several decades, interviewed planners, and examined demographic, land use and transportation characteristics in select centers across the region. We found that the regional vision had a moderate influence on local planning, due to vague definitions and criteria. However, light rail investment and market forces have had a more substantial influence-resulting in cities developing supportive transit oriented development policies. While over 100 centers have been designated, many face significant challenges to support regional goals, particularly because many light rail lines were located along rail and freeway alignments. A limited number of "tipping point centers" already contain the necessary elements to be successful with city and private investment. Many "greenfield centers" offer significant future opportunity for development, but their suburban location and infrastructure needs present significant costs and challenges. Many other "redevelopment centers" are dominated by industrial, commercial or office development, and the land use and transportation patterns within these centers present substantial hurdles that may limit their potential to achieve regional goals.

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“…Nor has existing research provided empirical methodologies founded on collaboration theory. Without more research on such second-order process-related effects, we cannot know whether, and to what extent, this -organizationallearning‖ aspect of scenario planning holds true, especially in the land use-transportation planning arena, where some forms of the technique have recently surged in popularity [43].…”

Section: Literature Evaluating Scenario Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Zegras

Rayle

2012

Futures

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Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also-potentially-to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/posttest experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants' propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals' perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants' propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants' views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.Keywords: scenario planning, policy integration, collaboration, participation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2 *Manuscript Click here to view linked References IntroductionAs the specific strategic planning approach described by Wack [1,2], scenario planning has been widely used as a means to develop organizational strategy for several decades, with many practitioners documenting its role in a variety of settings [3][4][5][6]. While the primary purpose of scenario planning is to develop strategy, advocates also stress its value as an educational and potentially transformational exercise-including its ability to persuade participants to dislodge preexisting views [1,6], improve understanding of the organizational context [7], provide a common instrument of communication among disparate actors [8][9][10], and encourage relationships among participants [11,12]. In particular, the scenario planning process may be a means of building networks and initiating collaboration [11][12][13].

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Land use-transportation scenario planning: promise and reality

Cited by 114 publications

References 5 publications

Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning

Scenario Method in Spatial Research and Planning

Metropolitan Centers: Evaluating Local Implementation of Regional Plans and Policies

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

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