Landfalls of Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

Yang, Jie; Chen, Meixiang

doi:10.5194/nhess-2019-279

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Similarly, the average LMI associated with RI TCs (95 knots) is almost double that of NRI TCs (50 knots). Similar results were seen in the North Pacific Ocean (Yang & Chen, 2019). In addition, Figure 2b also presents the intensity distribution at landfall (LFI) of RI and NRI TCs.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

On magnitudes of rapid intensification and destruction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Nekkali,

Osuri,

Mohapatra

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study targets long‐term analysis of rapid intensification (RI) magnitudes and destructiveness of tropical cyclones (TCs), as well as factors that are responsible for those magnitudes over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Out of 131 TCs during 1990–2021, 50 TCs (38%) exhibited RI in their lifetime. Results indicate that the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) and landfall intensity (LFI), along with the potential destructive index (PDI), are directly proportional (correlation coefficient > 0.8) to the lifetime maximum intensification rate. Most RI TCs (~80%) made landfall with an average LMI, LFI and PDI of 95 knots, 85 knots and 4 × 107 knot3, respectively. And the destructive indices are more than double compared to landfalling non‐RI TCs. Recent years have witnessed an increasing trend in RI magnitude and the frequent occurrence of very RI cases (intensity change ≥50 knots in 24 h). It infers that recent TCs have achieved RI and higher magnitudes in a short duration (~20 h). The higher intensification rates are promoted by lower wind shear as well as strong surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The higher sea surface temperature by ~0.2°C, oceanic heat content by ~60 × 107 J·m−2, lower tropospheric humidity by ~0.2 g·kg−1 and moist static energy by ~6 × 106 J·m−2 in the recent period (2007–2021) supports higher intensification rates as compared to the earlier period (1990–2006). The deep‐layer wind shear has decreased by 1.0 m·s−1 in recent years, which supports higher RI magnitudes. This study highlights the risk associated with RI magnitudes and the efforts to be made for improved predictions of higher intensification rates.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

On magnitudes of rapid intensification and destruction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Nekkali,

Osuri,

Mohapatra

2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The TC reanalyzed best track data from 1951 to 2020 is from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) Tokyo‐Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as summarized in the International Best‐Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) version 4 dataset (Knapp et al ., 2010; Knapp et al ., 2018a; 2018b). Previous studies defined RI as the upper 95th percentile of 24 hr maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) changes over water (Kaplan and DeMaria, 2003; Shu et al ., 2012; Lee et al ., 2016; Yang and Chen, 2019). To identify RI events in this study, we used two RI thresholds based on the 95th and 99th percentiles of the 24 hr Vmax change, equivalent to 25 and 35 kts, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using the Himawari‐8 satellite and their impacts in the Philippines

Tierra

Bagtasa

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo rapid intensification (RI), defined as the upper 95th percentile increase of TC maximum winds in a 24-hr period, are likely to pose a bigger threat to affected countries in the western North Pacific (WNP). In the Philippines, of the 522 TCs that made landfall from 1951 to 2020, 146 TCs (28%) underwent RI. The majority (82%) of these RI TCs made landfall with at least typhoon intensity, in contrast, only 12% of landfalling non-RI TCs were typhoons. As the region in the WNP basin where most TC RI occurs (bounded by 123 -140 E and 10 -20 N) is located just to the east of the Philippines, TC RI is typically followed by landfall in the Philippines, many of which do so at their peak intensity. Consequently, results suggest that TCs undergoing RI have a larger impact on the country. Comparison of socioeconomic data between landfalling RI and non-RI TCs showed that the former tend to have larger impacts in terms of population affected and number of deaths. Hence, determining TC RI at its onset can aid in the early warning of impending TC intensification. In this study, we explored the use of infrared brightness temperature (Bt) satellite data in the identification of TC RI onset.The 10.4 μm window band of the Himawari-8 satellite was used to measure the amount of active convection that typically occurs before or during the onset of TC RI. RI onset is determined if 100% of pixels within a 50 km radius from the TC centre have Bt ≤225 K. Assessment of satellite Bt data that fit this set of criteria followed by 25 and 35 kt RI in the next 24 hr have positive Pierce skill scores of 0.47 and 0.48, respectively, false alarm ratio of 0.13-0.20, and probability of false detection of 0.02-0.03.

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“…In the western Pacific basin, TCs form throughout the year. It is the most active TC basin in the world, producing more than 30 storms annually, accounting for almost onethird of the global total (Knapp et al, 2010;Yang and Chen, 2019). The southeast China coastal area has long coastlines and numerous islands, which feature high population densities as well as many wind-sensitive structures including highrise buildings and long-span bridges (Tao et al, 2018;Tao and Wang, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of China

Fang

Zhao

Cao

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as wind-sensitive structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclones (TCs) with approximately six to eight landfalls annually. This study predicts TC wind hazard curves in terms of design wind speed versus return periods for major coastal cities of China to facilitate TC-wind-resistant design and disaster mitigation as well as insurance-related risk assessment. The 10 min wind information provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1977 to 2015 is employed to rebuild TC wind field parameters (radius of maximum winds Rmax,s and shape parameter of radial pressure profile Bs) at surface level using a height-resolving boundary layer model. These parameters will be documented to develop an improved JMA dataset. The probabilistic behaviors of historical tracks and wind field parameters at the first time step within a 500 km radius subregion centered at a site of interest are examined to determine preferable probability distribution models before stochastically generating correlated genesis parameters utilizing the Cholesky decomposition method. Recursive models are applied for translation speed, Rmax,s and Bs during the TC track and wind field simulations. Site-specific TC wind hazards are studied using 10 000-year Monte Carlo simulations and compared with code suggestions as well as other studies. The resulting estimated wind speeds for northern cities (Ningbo and Wenzhou) under a TC climate are higher than code recommendations, while those for southern cities (Zhanjiang and Haikou) are lower. Other cities show a satisfactory agreement with code provisions at the height of 10 m. Some potential reasons for these findings are discussed to emphasize the importance of independently developing hazard curves of TC winds.

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Landfalls of Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

Cited by 7 publications

References 25 publications

On magnitudes of rapid intensification and destruction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

On magnitudes of rapid intensification and destruction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean

Identifying the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using the Himawari‐8 satellite and their impacts in the Philippines

Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of China

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